Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG



13.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB



     Company Name:                Scandinavian Astor Group AB
     ISIN:                        SE0019175274



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                SEK 46
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Q2 review: new scale, H2-weighted, chg.



A quarter that changed the group. Q2 was the first period with Nordic Shield
Group (NSG) in the perimeter, consolidated for a single month, and the
reported numbers show a company roughly twice the size of a year ago: sales
+89% yoy and a record order book up 111%. Meanwhile, underlying
profitability dipped on shifted deliveries and product mix, with the
deliveries landing in H2 and mix guided to normalise. Martin Elovsson took
over as CEO in May and has continued the buy-and-build toward a Nordic
defence ecosystem, adding PBH Teknik most recently.



Q2 sales rose 89% yoy to SEK 171m, carried by acquisitions (Carbonia,
Ammunity and one month of NSG). Organic growth was slightly negative, due to
shift effects. A larger contract won earlier slipped out of the quarter
after the customer requested a different delivery configuration. These
volumes are expected to come in H2.



Q2 underlying EBITDA came in roughly flat yoy at c. SEK 11m, a 6.2% margin
(-5.8pp yoy). Three effects explain this: i) shift effects into H2, ii) a
worse product mix in the protect segment and iii) ramp-up cost for capacity
increases, following supportive customer dialogues. At the same time, the
Industry segment (44% of Q2 sales) has maintained a strong margin of 20%
(+9pp yoy), driven by a larger share of high-margin defence related
contracts (similar to Q1) that is expected to persist (eNuW). Reported
EBITDA arrived at SEK 142m carrying a SEK 132m NSG revaluation gain.



Strong backlog to support H2, despite soft order intake. Q2 order intake of
SEK 81m implies a book-to-bill of 0.5x. Procurement cycles have lengthened
as individual contract sizes have grown. Noteworthy, Astor books fixed
contracts only, with framework agreements not part of the calculation. As
prime contractors (Astor's customers) have strong order books, it should be
a matter of timing until Astor receives its share, especially as the company
points to a high level of quotation activity and to positive ongoing
customer dialogues. The order book stood at SEK 610m end of Q2, of which SEK
595m is scheduled for delivery in 2026. This renders our estimated H2 sales
of SEK 559m conservative and leaves room for further unforeseen phasing
effects.



NSG generated SEK 180m of sales at a 17.8% EBITDA margin in the five months
to end-May, before consolidation. Annualised, that is close to half the
enlarged group, at a margin well above what Astor reported in Q2. While this
quarter had only one month of NSG fully consolidated, H2 will carry six and
should thus perform well.



In sum, Astor enters the second half with a record backlog, a structurally
higher Industry margin and PBH Teknik closing in September to add precision
manufacturing capacity into Mikroponent, while the Protect volumes which
shifted out of Q2 are expected to land in the same window. Meanwhile,
uncertainty from the soft order intake appears to be already reflected in
the valuation, improving risk-reward, in our view. In fact, a European
defence supplier peer group is trading at PER (2027e) of 22x vs. Astor's
12x.



Action: we raise 2026 profit estimates by the NSG book value gain and
reflect the PBH acquisition in our numbers, starting September. At the same
time, we reflect the order intake uncertainty and increasing risk-free rates
in a higher discount rate (8%; previously: 7%).



BUY, PT SEK 46 (old: SEK 54), based on a valuation mix of DCF and a peer
group analysis.



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=1fe1d919eb4437a98c81e1908b6bf074
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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