Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG



23.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG



     Company Name:                THE NAGA GROUP AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A41YCM0



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 7.30
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Q3 review: growth with skin in the game, chg.



Stronger trading momentum reinforces our positive view on NAGA. September's
recovery has continued into October, improving the earnings outlook on a
leaner cost base. NAGA One and new strategic partners add growth potential,
while the CEO's personal share commitment strengthens management alignment.
Reiterate BUY.



September's recovery is extending into Q4. Revenue of EUR 7m made September
the strongest month YTD, contributing more than half of Q3 sales. Management
confirmed on the conference call that this trading momentum continued into
October, supporting our expectation of stronger Q4 earnings (eNuW: EUR 3.1m
EBITDA).



The leaner cost base increases earnings leverage. Personnel costs fell 21%
qoq and operating expenses declined 13% qoq. Q3 sales of EUR 12.7m generated
net revenue of EUR 12.1m (+2.2% qoq) and EBITDA of EUR 1.35m (-39% qoq), a 10.6%
margin, while marketing spending rose 32% qoq ahead of product launches. 9M
26 EBITDA reached EUR 5.9m, already c. 60% above FY25.



Operating KPIs point to improving execution. Conversion rose 0.5pp qoq to
7.8%, with new funded clients up 4.4% qoq to 5,345. Deposits increased 4.8%
qoq to EUR 23.6m and trading volume rose 52% qoq to EUR 57.8bn.



NAGA One should increase revenue per client. The planned Q4 launch combines
trading, investing, crypto and payments in one app, alongside the planned
rollout of Social 2.0 and Ask NAGA. Cross-selling and better retention
should increase lifetime value across the existing client base.



Strategic financing brings capital and meaningful CEO alignment. NAGA's $ 8m
convertible from Presto and MDream carries an 8% coupon over three years and
is convertible at $ 4.26. A performance clause permits reduced-price
conversion if revenue of $ 75m and operating cash flow of $ 13.5m are not
achieved during the bond's second year. At current FX, the cash-flow
threshold equates to c. EUR 12.0m. Assuming annual capex of EUR 4.2m (H1: EUR
2.1m), this implies c. EUR 7.8m FCF before financing payments, or a c. 14%
yield on the c. EUR 56m market capitalisation (eNuW). If reduced-price
conversion occurs, Patrascu additionally transfers up to 762,742 of his own
shares, worth c. EUR 1.8m, reinforcing his personal incentive to deliver.



The partners can accelerate product rollout. Presto brings quantitative
trading and risk-management expertise to improve liquidity, pricing and
execution. MDream adds payments, wallet and digital-asset experience.
Management expects initial benefits within two to three quarters, with yield
products, automated quantitative strategies and NAGA Pay improvements
broadening revenue opportunities (eNuW).



In sum, NAGA has evolved into a profitable business with strengthening
operating momentum. Rising trading volumes and first-time depositor numbers
demonstrate improving client activity, while 9M EBITDA already exceeds FY25
by c. 60%. The upcoming NAGA One launch and new partners' technological
expertise support further growth. As revenues expand, the scalable platform
model should provide operating leverage, allowing earnings to grow faster
than sales (eNuW).



BUY, with a PT of EUR 7.30, based on DCF.



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=1cb6119bf8311430b78e7a86ed68f531
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2420812 23.10.2026 CET/CEST