Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG



23.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE



     Company Name:                tonies SE
     ISIN:                        LU2333563281



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 18.5
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr



Q2 preview: Growth to further accelerate




tonies looks set to report a strong Q2 marked by further accelerating
growth, carried by particularly high demand for the Toniebox 2, paving the
way for strong margin expansion in H2. Q2 results are due on August 20th. In
detail:



Growth seen to accelerating further. Following an already strong Q1, we
expect group sales to reach EUR 109m, up 37% yoy (H1: EUR 235m, +33% yoy), also
aided by fading FX headwinds. Next to a continued solid development in DACH
(eNuW: +22% yoy), North America should have remained the group's growth
engine with a 60% yoy sales increase (H1: 38%). This is largely due to
unabatedly strong demand for TB2 (eNuW: +62% yoy Toniebox sales), which
continues to exceed expectations following its Q3'25 launch. Importantly,
figurine demand shows no signs of slowing either (eNuW: +31% yoy),
underpinning the health of the ecosystem.



Rapidly growing installed base accelerates the flywheel. While the elevated
share of Toniebox sales should slightly weigh on the H1 margin (eNuW: adj.
EBITDA breakeven vs 2.1% in H1'25), it lays the foundation for a notably
higher H2 profitability. Mind you: every box sold today statistically yields
c. 20 high-margin figurine sales over the following 4.5 years. Hence, the
strong H1 box momentum sets the stage for accelerating, margin-accretive
attach revenues in H2, particularly in the all-important Q4. Here the
enlarged installed base should meet the launches of blockbuster content such
as Pokémon and Bluey, the most streamed show in the US for two consecutive
years. The H2 adj. EBITDA margin is hence seen to increase by 3.1pp to 14.2%
(eNuW).



FY guidance well in reach. Against the backdrop of a strong Q2, both the
group sales guidance of >20% yoy growth (cc) and the NA sales guidance of
>30% yoy (cc) look well achievable, in our view. In fact, with key content
launches (Pokémon, Bluey) as well as the new 'Toniebox lite' around the
corner in H2, the guidance could even prove conservative. Meeting the
guidance would only require 13% group and 27% NA growth in H2.



Our take: Q2 should once again confirm that tonies' growth is compounding
rather than maturing. The combination of an accelerating installed base,
intact figurine demand and a content pipeline covering nearly all relevant
IPs de-risks the H2 margin story and the upbeat mid-term targets presented
at the recent CMD.



To recap: tonies is a category-defining ecosystem with subscription-like
repurchase behaviour, still-low US household penetration of just 12% (vs.
58% in DACH) despite near-complete distribution across retail partners
covering ~85% of the US pre-school market, and a content engine licensors
now chase. Management guides for sales of more than EUR 1.4bn by FY30e (vs EUR
630m in FY25, 18% CAGR) alongside a 16-18% adj. EBITDA margin (FY25: 8.6%),
driven by new market entries, the upcoming 'Toniebox lite', rising US
penetration and the natural mix shift toward high-margin attach revenue. By
FY30e, the company will have transformed into a global icon with
particularly strong cash generation thanks to its capex-light set-up.



BUY with an unchanged EUR 18.5 PT based on DCF.




You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=43734f631856f3fb5f7a04e3e9156ece
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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