Palantir’s Earnings Test: European Setbacks Weigh on a Stock Already Down 19% This Year
Published on 04/29/2026 at 21:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Palantir Technologies heads into its quarterly earnings report on Monday with a split-screen narrative. The company’s core business is humming along — analysts are raising profit estimates and pointing to strong government contracts and industrial clients — yet the stock has been hammered by a sector-wide valuation reset and fresh political headwinds in Europe.
The shares closed at €116.34 on Wednesday, down roughly 3.3 percent on the day and nearly 19 percent lower since the start of the year. That leaves the stock more than 35 percent below its 52-week high of €179.86, a stark contrast to the operational momentum the company claims to be building.
Two European Contracts Under Threat
The most immediate cloud hanging over Palantir is not financial but political. In Germany, the Bundeswehr has effectively ruled out working with the US data analytics firm on a key cybersecurity project. Thomas Daum, the officer responsible for the German military’s cyber defense, told Handelsblatt that granting external industrial staff access to the national database is simply “unthinkable.” Germany has already shortlisted three candidates — two German providers and one French company — and plans to test their software this summer, with a contract expected before year-end.
Across the Channel, Palantir’s troubles are equally acute. The British government is considering pulling the plug early on a £330 million NHS data project. A health ministry minister has signaled that an exit clause could be triggered next spring, years ahead of schedule. Lawmakers have pointed to a poor delivery record: of 13 agreed core functions, Palantir has delivered only three or four, and those only partially. Around 200 NHS trusts signed up for the program, but only about half are actively using it, and just a quarter report any tangible benefit.
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Citi’s Unusual Call: Higher Earnings, Lower Target
Against this backdrop, Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke issued a mixed signal on April 28. He reaffirmed his “Buy” rating but slashed his price target from $260 to $210 — a move that looks contradictory until you understand the logic. Radke actually raised his earnings estimates for 2027 and 2028, but the valuation multiple that investors are willing to pay for enterprise software stocks has compressed sharply across the sector in 2026. Adobe and ServiceNow have both suffered significant year-to-date losses, and Palantir is caught in the same downdraft.
Radke pointed to ongoing large contracts with Airbus and Stellantis as operational bright spots. Rosenblatt Securities, meanwhile, has held its $200 price target steady, citing sustained strength in government work and progress with major commercial accounts.
The Numbers That Matter
Palantir is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 5 after the US market close. The consensus calls for revenue of roughly $1.54 billion, representing growth of about 74 percent from the same period last year. On adjusted earnings per share, analysts expect $0.28 — more than double the year-ago figure.
For the full year 2026, management has guided for revenue of around $7.19 billion. But with the stock trading at a price-to-earnings multiple north of 200, the bar is exceptionally high. Market observers believe the board will need to raise its full-year forecast — citing sustained demand for the AIP artificial intelligence platform — to justify the current valuation.
Insider Sales Add to the Pressure
Adding to the unease, insider sales have totaled more than $43 million over the past 90 days, including a significant disposal by co-founder Peter Thiel. While insider selling is not uncommon, the timing and scale have not gone unnoticed by the market.
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A History of Wild Swings
Palantir’s stock has a history of extreme volatility around earnings. Over the past 12 quarterly reports, the shares have moved an average of nearly 16 percent following the release. If the support level around €116 fails to hold in the coming days, a retest of recent lows could be on the cards.
The earnings call will also be a forum for management to address the European setbacks directly. Questions about Germany and the NHS are all but certain, and investors will be watching to see whether the US business is strong enough to offset the political drag from across the Atlantic.
Of the 21 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it a “Buy,” five say “Hold,” and two recommend selling. That split reflects the tension between Palantir’s underlying business momentum and the growing list of risks that could derail it.
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