Palantir’s Upcoming Earnings: A Critical Test for the AI Stock

As Palantir Technologies prepares to release its quarterly results, investors are bracing for a pivotal moment. The data analytics firm, coming off an exceptionally strong performance in 2025, now faces heightened scrutiny. Despite rising confidence in its business model, its shares have recently retreated from their peaks. The central question for the market is whether the growth trajectory of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) can sustain the company's current valuation.

Currently trading at €138.02, Palantir's stock sits well below the record highs achieved last year. The share price has declined approximately 25% over the past 30 days and is nearly 29% off its 52-week high. This represents a significant reassessment following the equity's powerful rally throughout 2025.

Interestingly, despite this correction, the price remains about 104% above its 52-week low. This illustrates the sheer velocity of the prior advance and highlights the market's current sensitivity to any potential disappointment. The shares are now trading notably below the 50-day moving average of €163.94, reinforcing the consolidating nature of the recent price action. From a technical perspective, the focus is on whether the stock can establish a solid support level before the earnings release or if further declines are needed to align investor expectations with the company's valuation.

Quarterly Figures as a Litmus Test

The crucial date is Monday, February 2, 2026, when Palantir will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the U.S. market close. This announcement is particularly consequential because the company set a high bar for itself with an outstanding third-quarter performance.

In Q3 2025, Palantir delivered metrics that significantly surpassed consensus estimates:
* Year-over-year revenue growth of 63%, reaching $1.18 billion.
* A 121% surge in its U.S. commercial business, driven by the rapid scaling of AIP "Bootcamps."
* A "Rule of 40" score of 114%—the sum of its growth and profitability rates—an exceptionally high figure for a growth-oriented company.

This powerful combination of rapid expansion and clear profitability significantly bolstered the investment narrative surrounding the AIP platform. Consequently, expectations are now elevated that Palantir can confirm this momentum in the final quarter of 2025 and carry it forward into 2026. However, the recent share price correction indicates the market is no longer rewarding headline growth alone post the record year; it now demands robust evidence of the trend's sustainability.

Key Focus Areas for Investors

The upcoming report will shift attention toward future prospects rather than purely historical Q4 results. Three specific areas are under the microscope:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?

1. Revenue Guidance for 2026
   Following 63% growth in Q3 2025, market participants are looking for signals on whether Palantir can continue to target growth rates above 50%, even as it laps increasingly tough comparisons. Any forecast that falls meaningfully below this threshold is likely to reignite debates over its valuation.

2. Monetization of the AIP Platform
   The AIP Bootcamps were a central growth engine for the U.S. commercial segment. The critical question now is the conversion rate of pilot customers into long-term, paying contracts and the resulting development of recurring revenue. Specific metrics or conversion rates disclosed by management could become a significant catalyst for the stock.

3. Stability in the Government Segment
   While the commercial business has recently dominated headlines, government contracts remain a crucial foundation. Consistent and predictable renewals in this sector help balance the higher volatility inherent in the commercial segment.

The pronounced re-rating of the stock in January signals that the market has priced in little room for disappointment. To end the current consolidation phase, a classic "beat-and-raise" scenario may be necessary: not only quarterly figures that exceed expectations but also a convincing outlook for 2026.

Conclusion: A High Bar on February 2nd

Palantir approaches its earnings release with a mix of a strong prior quarter, lofty expectations, and a noticeable stock price correction. On one hand, the distance from its highs shows that some of the previous euphoria has already dissipated. On the other hand, the valuation remains demanding until the growth pace and monetization of AIP are clearly substantiated.

On February 2nd, management will provide the crucial pieces of the puzzle with the Q4 and annual results, along with guidance for 2026. The market's verdict—whether the current weakness is viewed as a normal pause or the start of another round of valuation reassessment—will hinge on the company's ability to connect its growth, profitability, and forward guidance to the record-setting precedent of the previous quarter.