Patent win in China lends support as Novo Nordisk stock opens 2026 higher

Novo Nordisk got off to a firmer start in the new year, rebounding at week’s end after a challenging 2025. The stock rose 2.9% to $52.37, closing the first trading week of 2026 on a stronger note. The key driver: a court ruling in China that reinforces the company’s protection for Semaglutide.

A December 31 decision from China’s Supreme People’s Court confirmed Novo Nordisk’s exclusivity for Semaglutide in China through the planned patent expiry in 2026. That effectively wards off unauthorized compounders and generic suppliers in the final patent year, helping to shield volume even as pressure on prices remains.

Earlier in the month, reports of sharp price cuts for Wegovy in China had unsettled investors. Novo Nordisk trimmed prices for the two highest Wegovy dosages by about 48% to stay competitive against cheaper local rivals. The court ruling eases some concerns that lower prices would inevitably trigger an aggressive generics wave.

Additional support came from the residual impact of the US FDA’s approval of the oral Wegovy variant on December 22, 2025. That clearance could enable a notable expansion of the obesity portfolio in the current year, attracting patients who prefer tablets over injections.

The favorable patent outcome arrives amid a period of heightened uncertainty for Novo Nordisk. The 2025 environment was difficult, with the stock trading in the lower half of its 52-week range of 43.08 to 93.80 USD, after a substantial pullback from earlier highs.

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Key dynamics contributing to the volatility include:

• Increasing competition from Eli Lilly in the obesity and diabetes markets
• Capacity and supply bottlenecks
• Margin concerns stemming from price adjustments, especially in China

The week’s price action reflects this mix. After the news of large Wegovy price reductions in China, the shares initially slipped about 2%. The court ruling, however, shifted sentiment away from pure margin anxiety toward a scenario in which lower prices are not immediately followed by a surge in aggressive generics.

Technically, the stock reclaimed and held the $52 level on Friday, which some observers view as a sign of stabilization after the sizable declines in the latter half of 2025.

Outlook: execution will determine the takeaway

For 2026, the focus is shifting from headlines to execution. Key milestones and events to watch include:

• Market introduction of oral Wegovy in the United States: The tablet form should broaden demand and reduce barriers for patients who prefer non-injectables.
• Pipeline progress: Investors are awaiting further updates on CagriSema after Novo Nordisk filed for FDA approval in mid-December 2025.
• Q4 results: The next major earnings release is slated for early February, at which point management will likely provide guidance for 2026, clarifying growth trajectories, margins, and the impact of pricing adjustments.

In sum, the China patent victory offers near-term relief for Novo Nordisk and supports a late-week stock rebound. The real test, however, lies ahead with the rollout of the oral Wegovy in the US, ongoing pipeline developments, and the February earnings update that will lay out concrete 2026 targets.