Pentagon Backs Graphite One’s Supply-Chain Vision, But the Stock Tells a Different Story
14.06.2026 - 14:17:28 | boerse-global.de
The US Department of Defense published a report on 4 June calling for a domestic battery manufacturing ecosystem, and Graphite One ticks every box the Pentagon wants to see. Yet the company’s share price is trading at €0.68, more than 42% below where it started the year and a staggering 57% off the 52-week high of €1.59 reached in late January. That gap between political tailwind and market reception is the central tension investors are now watching.
The Pentagon report, produced with the Federal Consortium for Advanced Batteries, warns that Asian suppliers control 92% of the global market for battery manufacturing equipment — a vulnerability that extends beyond electric vehicles to military vehicles, drones and AI data centres. Among the recommended remedies are targeted production tax credits, a joint investment fund and a framework for licensing manufacturing technology from allied nations. The report projects 5,000 new US jobs and a global battery manufacturing market worth $48 billion by 2032.
Graphite One fits that blueprint almost perfectly. Its Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska is the largest graphite resource in the country, according to the US Geological Survey, and the company plans to process the material at a refinery in Conneaut, Ohio. CEO Anthony Huston has long argued that secure anode materials are the bedrock of a resilient battery supply chain. Already the US Export-Import Bank has invited the company to apply for two loans totalling $2.07 billion — $1.4 billion for the first expansion phase of the Ohio plant and $670 million for the Alaska mine. The formal application is expected to be filed sometime later in 2026.
On the permitting front, Graphite Creek is included in the FAST-41 federal review framework, and management anticipates receiving the final federal approval in September. Temporary tariff exemptions on imported battery equipment remain in place at least until November 2026. All of those timelines are converging in a tight window.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Graphite One?
But the stock’s slump reflects a deeper uncertainty: the lack of binding offtake agreements. Graphite One has delivered commercial-grade anode material in quantities of up to 20 kilograms to multiple prospective customers, who are now testing it against their specifications. Talks over potential binding contracts are ongoing, but none have been signed. An industry cautionary tale comes from Syrah Resources, which received a warning from Tesla over anode material quality in July 2025 and only had the notice withdrawn on 1 June 2026 after producing compliant samples. Syrah operates the only large-scale, vertically integrated graphite anode production outside China in Louisiana. The episode illustrates that even with samples in hand, final qualification can take months.
Graphite One does have non-binding supply agreements with luxury electric vehicle maker Lucid Group — one from July 2024 covering synthetic graphite and a later one covering natural graphite anode material for Lucid and its battery cell suppliers for future vehicles. Non-binding, however, is not enough to move a stock.
Meanwhile, the shareholder meeting scheduled for 26 June adds another layer of tension. The board is seeking approval for new stock options and compensation packages for the current year. The capital structure already includes roughly 209 million common shares outstanding, plus about 4.4 million restricted share units, 4.9 million performance share units and more than 10.7 million options. The most recently issued options carry an exercise price of C$1.13, based on the closing price on the TSX Venture Exchange on 15 May — well above the current market price. For a pre-revenue company still years away from production, that dilution is a sore point for many holders.
Graphite One at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the picture offers no relief. The stock trades about 5.6% below its 50-day moving average and nearly 19% below its 200-day average. The relative strength index at 42.1 indicates neither oversold conditions nor building buying pressure. With 30-day annualized volatility approaching 40%, the shares remain a high-risk bet.
All three critical events — the shareholder vote, the federal permit for Graphite Creek and the progress of customer testing — fall between June and September. If no binding offtake contract emerges by then, the patience of even the most politically optimistic investors will be stretched thin. The Pentagon’s seal of approval may open doors in Washington, but it has yet to open wallets on the trading floor.
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