Qualcomm’s Modular Deal Ignites 12% Surge, Yet Wall Street Weighs Ambitious 2029 Roadmap
25.06.2026 - 17:24:13 | boerse-global.de
Qualcomm’s stock rocketed 12.15% to €192.94 on Thursday after the chipmaker unveiled a sweeping strategic pivot that takes direct aim at Nvidia’s dominance in artificial intelligence. The sharp one-day gain, however, contrasts with a broader slide that has left the share price 22.8% below its 52-week high of €222.90, underscoring the market’s mixed verdict on the company’s long-term transformation.
The centerpiece of the new direction is the acquisition of Modular Inc., a startup founded by Swift creator Chris Lattner, for approximately $3.92 billion in stock. Modular’s platform allows developers to run AI models across different hardware without rewriting code, directly challenging Nvidia’s CUDA monopoly. Qualcomm is betting that this hardware-agnostic software will make its chips a viable alternative in data centers, a market long dominated by the GPU giant.
To support that ambition, Qualcomm is bringing its own server processor, the Dragonfly C1000, with over 250 cores, to market. Meta Platforms has already signed a multiyear agreement for the chip, with production slated to begin in the second half of 2028. Alongside the CPU, Qualcomm is developing AI accelerators and a new memory architecture it claims delivers higher bandwidth per watt than conventional GPU solutions. Microsoft is meanwhile integrating Qualcomm’s computing architecture into its Azure cloud platform, and the company is reportedly in talks with ByteDance, the parent of TikTok, about custom chip designs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Qualcomm?
The financial targets laid out at a recent investor day are nothing short of staggering. By fiscal 2029, Qualcomm expects revenue from outside the smartphone market to reach $40 billion, nearly double previous estimates. The data center business alone is forecast to contribute more than $15 billion – up from virtually zero today. Automotive revenue is pegged at $10 billion annually, underpinned by a design-win pipeline that has swelled to $65 billion. The Internet of Things segment is slated to exceed $14 billion. Under that scenario, handsets would shrink to just one-third of total chip revenue, a radical departure from a company long defined by mobile communications.
Management projects adjusted earnings per share of over $18 by 2029, well above consensus expectations. The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $0.92, payable in June 2026.
Yet for all the ambition, the stock’s trajectory over recent months tells a more cautious story. After touching the 52-week high in late May, shares drifted down to €172.04, with 30-day volatility exceeding 82%. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 44.3, a neutral reading that suggests no clear short-term momentum.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic. Morningstar raised its price target to $200, implying roughly 16% upside from current levels, citing Qualcomm’s strong AI outlook and reduced dependence on Apple. But the Modular deal remains subject to antitrust clearance, with closure expected in the second half of 2026. Until then, investors are left to weigh the vision against the execution risk – and whether Qualcomm can truly pull off a pivot of this magnitude.
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