Qualcomm Stock Slumps Despite Wave of Price-Target Hikes as Long-Term Bets Test Patience

Investors have had little to cheer about in recent weeks, even as a barrage of analyst upgrades painted an increasingly bullish picture. Qualcomm shares closed at €164.70 on Monday, down roughly 16% over the past 30 days and more than 26% below the 52-week high of $222.90 (converted). The disconnect between analyst enthusiasm and market reality is stark — and it centers on the gap between ambitious promises and distant delivery dates.

The trigger for the upgrades was Qualcomm’s June 24 Investor Day, where the company unveiled its most aggressive expansion plan yet. Chief among the announcements was the Dragonfly C1000, a data-center processor designed for AI workloads that boasts more than 250 Oryon cores in a chiplet architecture. Qualcomm claims the chip delivers double the performance per watt of existing server CPUs. Meta has already signed a multi-generational agreement to deploy the C1000, while Microsoft plans to use Qualcomm’s HBC-based AI accelerators. The catch: commercial availability is not expected until 2028.

Alongside the chip roadmap, Qualcomm announced the acquisition of Modular, a software specialist that lets developers run AI applications across different chip architectures without code modifications. The deal is slated to close in the second half of 2026 and underscores the company’s push to become a full-stack AI provider spanning data center to edge device. Modular’s platform could help Qualcomm diversify beyond its legacy smartphone business, where management has guided for third-quarter revenue of $9.2 billion to $10.0 billion — a subdued outlook as device makers trim production plans.

Analysts responded with a flurry of target hikes, though most held their ratings steady. Mizuho lifted its target from $170 to $210 while keeping a neutral stance, forecasting data-center revenue could exceed $15 billion by fiscal 2029 — roughly a 50-fold increase from current levels. Benchmark stood out with a $300 target and scheduled a virtual investor dialogue for June 30, having already raised its target from $225 to $300 immediately after the event.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Qualcomm?

Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore was a rare rater upgrade, moving from Underweight to Equal Weight and raising his target from $146 to $231. “We were wrong to be skeptical,” Moore wrote, pointing to Qualcomm’s goal of $5 billion in AI data-center revenue by 2027. Rosenblatt called the Investor Day a “definitive turning point,” lifting its target to $265, and Wells Fargo followed suit with the same number, citing an automotive pipeline of $65 billion and potential earnings per share above $18.

Yet the bears remained unconvinced. Barclays kept its Underweight rating despite raising its target to $245, labeling Qualcomm a “show-me story in a fiercely competitive market.” Bernstein moved to $235 (Market Perform), Cantor Fitzgerald to $220 (Neutral), and Citi to $198 (Neutral) — all noting headwinds from weak smartphone demand expected in 2026. DZ Bank’s Ingo Wermann was one of the few to upgrade outright, moving to Buy with a €265 12-month target.

Skepticism is fed not only by the 2028 timeline of the Dragonfly C1000 but also by the €4 billion acquisition cost of Modular, which will pressure margins in the near term. The open question of whether Meta will use Qualcomm as a sole CPU supplier or share the win with AMD — which recently deepened its own Meta partnership — adds another layer of uncertainty. Qualcomm’s own EPS target of more than $18 for 2029 sat well above the consensus estimate of $15.26 at the time of the Investor Day, a gap that suggests the Street is pricing in execution risk.

Qualcomm at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

With the stock trading comfortably above its 200-day moving average of $145.18 (€145.18), long-term bulls see a floor. But the next real inflection point comes July 29, when Qualcomm reports fiscal third-quarter earnings. That print will offer the first concrete data since the strategic pivot — and will test whether the data-center narrative is more than a promise on paper.

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