Rheinmetall: Analysts See 67% Upside, But the Market Isn’t Playing Along

The disparity between what analysts expect from Rheinmetall and what investors are actually paying for the stock has rarely been starker. While 21 out of 22 analysts surveyed in May rate the defence group a buy — with the lone holdout still not recommending a sell — the shares closed Monday at €1,208.20, a full €817 below the average 12-month target of €2,025.48. That gap of roughly 40% is almost identical to the stock’s 40% distance from its own 52-week high of €1,995.

The divide reflects a market that is repricing the stock after an extreme run-up, even as the company continues to rack up operational wins. Rheinmetall recently secured another major Bundeswehr contract for military trucks and placed a new bond that was multiple times oversubscribed by institutional investors. Yet the share price has shed about 25% since the start of 2025, and the 12-month performance stands at minus 35%.

Technically, the picture offers little encouragement. The 50-day moving average of €1,369 sits roughly 12% above the current price, while the 200-day average at €1,631 is more than 26% higher. The relative strength index of 58 is neutral rather than oversold, and the annualised 30-day volatility of nearly 54% suggests that sharp swings are not about to subside. On May 29, a candlestick “hanging man” pattern appeared — a short-term warning signal that could give short-term buyers pause.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?

There are, however, early signs of stabilisation. From the 52-week low of €1,118 marked on May 13, the stock has clawed back about 8%. Yet the 30-day decline of 11.82% shows the trend remains firmly negative.

Operational data released on May 7 bolsters the bulls’ case. First-quarter revenue came in at €1.9 billion, up 8% year-on-year, while operating profit rose 17% to €224 million, yielding an operating margin of 11.6%. Management confirmed full-year guidance of €14.0 to €14.5 billion in revenue and an operating margin, including acquisitions, of around 19%. Those numbers support the argument that higher volumes should eventually drive better scale effects.

For income-focused holders, the dividend acts as an anchor. Rheinmetall paid out €11.50 per share in May — a tangible signal of payout discipline even as the stock struggles. On the calendar, BNP Paribas Exane hosts a CEO conference on June 6, followed by Mediobanca on June 23. The half-year report is due on August 6, which will provide the next hard test of whether the company’s underlying strength can finally convince the market to reprice its shares back toward what analysts believe they are worth.

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Rheinmetall Stock: New Analysis - 2 June

Fresh Rheinmetall information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Rheinmetall analysis...

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