Rheinmetall: Artillery Flows From New Plant, But a €300 Million Frigate Loss Keeps the Stock in a Tailspin
Veröffentlicht: 15.07.2026 um 19:54 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall this month fired the first salvo from its new ammunition factory in Lower Saxony, sending a low five-figure number of RH1412 155mm shells to Ukraine. The delivery from Unterlüß marks a milestone in the group’s production ramp-up — more than half of the overall order has now been shipped, with the remainder due by the end of 2026. Yet the shares, trading at €965.10, have shed nearly 40% since the start of the year and are hovering just 7% above the 52-week low of €902.50. The disconnect between factory output and market sentiment has rarely been wider.
The immediate weight on the stock is a program loss at the F126 frigate project. In an ad-hoc statement on 2 July, Rheinmetall cut its involvement in the vessel and flagged potential revenue shortfalls of up to €300 million for the current financial year. That shock landed just as the group was absorbing heavy capital outlays for new manufacturing sites, including the Unterlüß plant. Investors, after years of expansion, are now demanding a sharper conversion of profit into free cash flow — and the F126 hole has made that conversion look even more distant.
Other contracts continue to accumulate. Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles took full responsibility for the InterRoC VII autonomous convoy research project for the German military, a programme designed to reduce driver risk in contested zones. Separate deals included decoy launchers for Kuwait and laser weapon systems for the German Navy. Each order reinforces the group’s shift beyond ammunition and armoured vehicles into software?driven, robotic capabilities — a field where NATO allies are ramping spending. But none of these wins has arrested the slide.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
The technical picture underscores the selling pressure. The stock is now 15.55% below its 50?day moving average and 35.93% below the 200?day moving average. The relative strength index has fallen to 34.9, creeping into oversold territory, while annualised 30?day volatility stands at 68.91%. The market capitalisation has shrunk to €46.23 billion, a far cry from the €1,995 peak reached last September.
For now, the market is focused on capital allocation rather than order intake. The new ammunition plant in Lower Saxony has already started deliveries, and the RH1412 shell — the newest product in Rheinmetall’s artillery portfolio — is now reaching Ukrainian forces directly from German soil. Yet each operational success is being weighed against the cash tied up in plant expansions and the F126 adjustment.
Investors will get their next hard look at the numbers on 6 August, when Rheinmetall publishes second?quarter results. The market expects clarity on how the group plans to offset the F126 revenue loss, as well as evidence that margin pressure from the rapid production build?up is easing. Until then, the shares remain caught between a widening order book and a market demanding proof that the spending will eventually translate into returns.
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