Rheinmetall’s €80bn Boxer Risk and a €200m Truck Delay Spook the Market

Rheinmetall’s stock is plumbing depths not seen in a year, even as the defence group’s order book swells to a record €73bn and its dividend jumps by more than 40%. The disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment has rarely been starker.

The shares hit a fresh 52-week low of €1,239.40 on Friday, shedding more than 8% in a single session. The trigger: JPMorgan ended a near four-year “overweight” recommendation on the stock, slashing its price target from €2,130 to €1,500 — a cut of almost 30%. Analyst David Perry cited two core concerns. First, Rheinmetall has missed market consensus in four of the past six months, and Perry expects estimates to drift lower rather than higher, trimming his own forecasts through 2030 by up to 5%. Second, he sees growing scepticism around the product portfolio. Drones are reshaping the battlefield, potentially denting demand for traditional artillery ammunition such as 155mm shells. Perry also flagged risks to the planned Boxer armoured vehicle contract, valued at roughly €80bn, which could be scaled back or stretched over a longer timeline.

The downgrade stands in sharp contrast to Bernstein, which reaffirmed its “outperform” rating and €2,050 price target on Friday. Analyst Adrien Rabier made his endorsement conditional on Rheinmetall converting its €73bn order backlog into revenue more quickly and securing new large-scale contracts for conventional military hardware. The gap between the two houses — €1,500 versus €2,050 — underscores how divided the analyst community has become.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?

Operationally, the picture is more nuanced. Rheinmetall completed its acquisition of NVL early this year, and the new Naval Systems segment delivered its first results in March, contributing roughly €77m in revenue from new-build programmes. The group is already pursuing the next step, bidding for German Naval Yards, with a target of generating €5bn in annual sales from the marine division by 2030. The order book climbed to a record €73bn by the end of March, with the naval unit contributing a significant chunk. Operating profit rose 17% to €224m, while the operating margin improved to 11.6%. Air defence was a standout, growing by more than 30%.

Yet not all is smooth. Finished trucks worth €200m were delayed into the second quarter at a customer’s request, pushing operating free cash flow to minus €285m. Rheinmetall is also buying up material aggressively for future contracts. Management insists the cash position will turn positive over the full year, but the immediate drain has unnerved investors.

The stock closed at €1,349.20 on Thursday, barely above its year low, and has lost roughly 16% since the start of 2026 — or more than 22% by Friday’s close. A relative strength index reading of 80 signals an overbought condition, adding to the technical headwinds.

All eyes now turn to the annual general meeting in Düsseldorf on 12 May. Shareholders will vote on a proposed dividend of €11.50 per share, up from €8.10 a year earlier. The ex-dividend date is 13 May, with payment scheduled for 15 May. Management is sticking to its full-year guidance: revenue growth of 40% to 45% and an operating margin of around 19% for 2026, implying sales of up to €14.5bn. How the board plans to win back investor confidence will be the central question next week.

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