Rheinmetall’s Baltic Munitions Bet and Trio of Contracts Fail to Reverse the Stock’s Half-Year Slide
Published on 07/13/2026 at 09:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall is spending up to €300 million on a new artillery-shell factory in Lithuania, its biggest single manufacturing commitment in Eastern Europe, yet the Düsseldorf defence group’s share price continues to trade near 12-month lows. The stock closed at €993.00 on Friday, down 17.01% over the past 30 days and 38.00% since the start of the year, while the gap to the September 2025 peak of €1,995.00 now stands at more than 50%.
The Baltic plant, a joint venture with the Lithuanian state in the town of Baisogala, is designed to produce several tens of thousands of 155-millimetre artillery rounds annually and is expected to create up to 150 jobs. Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus?da has called it the largest defence investment in the country’s history. Production is slated to start in 2026, with a gradual ramp-up from 2027.
The factory announcement comes on the heels of three separate contract wins that together span naval decoys, mobile field hospitals and directed-energy weapons. In early July, Rheinmetall secured its first-ever order from Kuwait’s naval forces for Multi-Ammunition Softkill Systems (MASS), a decoy launcher designed to protect warships against anti-ship missiles and laser-guided munitions. The contract is valued in the low double-digit million euro range, with Omnitrap ammunition adding a high single-digit million euro component; deliveries begin in the second quarter of 2026 and run until 2029. The vessels, part of Kuwait’s largest shipbuilding programme in more than 15 years, are being built by Abu Dhabi Ship Building for the UAE’s EDGE Group.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
A month earlier, Rheinmetall’s Mobile Systeme subsidiary signed a contract with Morocco for seven mobile field hospitals, worth a mid-double-digit million euro sum, with delivery set for 2027 and 2028. Just one day before the Kuwait announcement, the German Federal Office for Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support placed a mid-triple-digit million euro order for a high-energy laser weapon system for the German Navy, to be developed by a consortium of MBDA Deutschland and Rheinmetall Waffe Munition. The laser system is scheduled to be operational by 2029.
Yet none of this has arrested the stock’s decline. Market observers point to a structural shift within NATO spending priorities away from traditional land systems and toward air defence, drones and deep-strike capabilities — a trend that puts companies with a heavy land-system focus such as Rheinmetall at a disadvantage. The abrupt cancellation of the F126 frigate programme, which cost the government billions in already-spent funds and replaced a planned order for six large vessels with eight smaller MEKO A-200 frigates, dealt a particular blow to sentiment.
Technical indicators underscore the strain. Rheinmetall’s share price now trades 34.59% below its 200-day moving average, while 30-day realised volatility has climbed to nearly 69% annualised. The relative strength index reading of 37.2 points to oversold conditions, but the market has not yet found a floor.
Analysts remain broadly constructive, with 14 buy ratings against a single hold and no sell recommendations. The average price target sits well above current levels, though some houses have trimmed their forecasts following the F126 setback. The key test will come on 6 August, when Rheinmetall publishes its next quarterly results. Investors will be looking for details on how the group plans to replace the lost F126 volumes, along with updates on the integration of the recent contract wins and the Lithuanian factory’s timeline. For now, the disconnect between a busy order book and a halving share price leaves the narrative firmly in the hands of the next earnings call.
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