Rheinmetall’s Cash Crunch Tests Investor Patience as €1bn Bundeswehr Order Lands
23.06.2026 - 03:45:46 | boerse-global.de
The paradox at Rheinmetall is becoming stark. Record orders are piling up, yet the stock has shed more than a quarter of its value since January. The disconnect between a booming order book and worsening cash generation has put the defence group under the microscope, and a packed calendar of investor events over the coming weeks will determine whether the narrative can shift.
At the heart of the tension lies a single number: the free cash flow. In the first quarter, it swung to minus €285m from a positive €243m a year earlier. Rheinmetall attributes the shortfall to heavy inventory building as it secures supply chains for the planned revenue ramp-up. The market, however, is less forgiving — the shares currently trade at €1,181.60, some 40% below their 52-week high of roughly €1,995 and more than a quarter below the 200-day moving average.
To steady nerves, management has been quick to point to operational progress. The order backlog hit a new record of €73bn by the end of March, with the weapons and ammunition segment alone expanding 23% year-on-year. Naval contracts worth €5.5bn were also booked for the first time. The operating margin improved to 11.6%, and the full-year guidance for 2026 remains intact.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Against that backdrop, the Bundeswehr deal announced on Monday adds immediate near-term visibility. The German military is calling off more than 2,000 logistics vehicles, generating around €1bn in revenue. Deliveries are scheduled to start in the first half of 2026, which should help underpin short-term sales targets.
Away from the core defence business, Rheinmetall’s subsidiary Pierburg is pushing into e-mobility infrastructure. It recently showcased a new version of its flush-mounted charging curb at a Munich trade fair, targeting fleet operators of delivery vans with a 22 kW solution that integrates charging points discreetly into urban streetscapes.
The board is now taking the message directly to investors. On 23 June, Rheinmetall will present at the Mediobanca conference in Milan, followed two days later by the Baader Bank Summit in Unterschleißheim. The real test, however, comes on 6 August, when the half-year numbers are due. The market will want to see whether the swollen order book can start converting into free cash flow. Another negative print could drag the stock towards its 52-week low of €1,099.80.
Insider buying suggests some confidence in the recovery. A company linked to CEO Armin Papperger purchased shares worth around €4m in early June. Analysts at Oddo BHF also see the sell-off as an entry point, maintaining a price target of €1,670. They note that if management can turn the €73bn backlog into cash, the next key resistance lies at €1,277 — a level that would still leave the stock nearly 40% below its all-time peak but mark a meaningful reversal of the current downtrend.
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