Rheinmetall's China Export Curbs Overshadow Bundeswehr's €60.5 Million Truck Order
Published on 07/29/2026 at 12:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall shares slipped 2.31 percent to €1,064.80 on Wednesday, as Beijing's latest trade restrictions against the German defence group outweighed a fresh Bundeswehr contract worth €60.5 million. The stock has now given back some of the ground gained during a recent recovery rally, trading roughly 3.98 percent below its 50-day moving average.
China imposed export controls on 14 EU companies at the end of July, including Rheinmetall, in retaliation for the bloc's 21st sanctions package against Russia. The measures bar these firms from purchasing dual-use goods from Chinese suppliers. It marks the second such response from Beijing this year, following a similar move in April. Rheinmetall has described its supply chains as stable despite the restrictions, while Czech truckmaker Tatra Trucks, also on the list, said it has yet to feel any practical impact.
The timing is awkward for Rheinmetall, which had been staging a notable recovery from its 2025 lows. The stock hit a year-to-date trough of €902.50 before bouncing back, though it remains down 31.41 percent since January. The latest setback pushes the shares further from the all-time high reached in October 2025.
Bundeswehr Expands Heavy Transporter Fleet
In more positive news, Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles secured an order for 56 additional Elefant 2 heavy-duty transporters, valued at roughly €60.5 million gross. Deliveries are scheduled for 2026 and 2027. The contract extends an existing framework agreement that originally covered up to 137 vehicles, of which 32 had already been delivered under a seven-year, €122 million deal that concluded in early 2025.
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The Elefant 2 packs 680 horsepower, reaches speeds of 89 km/h, and can handle a gross vehicle weight of 135 tonnes. It complements the armoured Mammut heavy transporter, also produced by Rheinmetall. The company frames these vehicles as critical to Germany's role as NATO's logistics hub, given the alliance's need to move heavy combat equipment across Europe.
This latest order fits a broader pattern. In May, Rheinmetall landed a multi-billion-euro contract for more than 2,000 unprotected transport vehicles — the fourth tranche of a framework deal covering up to 6,500 units. The group also secured a €1.04 billion contract for IdZ-ES soldier systems, covering modernised squad-level equipment. The cumulative effect positions Rheinmetall as the Bundeswehr's dominant mobility and infantry equipment partner.
Raw Material Dependency and Valuation Questions
Beyond the immediate share price reaction, the Chinese export controls have refocused attention on the European defence industry's reliance on Beijing for critical raw materials. The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe (ASD), which counts Rheinmetall, Airbus, BAE Systems, Saab and Thales among its members, has warned that further restrictions on rare earths are due to take effect from December 1. China currently supplies around 31 percent of the EU's tungsten needs and virtually all of its magnesium. The bloc's Critical Raw Materials Act aims to cover 10 percent of domestic demand from local extraction by 2030.
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Meanwhile, a valuation analysis from Simply Wall St has added to the debate over Rheinmetall's fair value. Using a discounted cash flow model, the research firm arrived at a fair price of €1,721.35 per share — well above Wednesday's trading level. The key driver in that calculation is the assumption that Germany will raise defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, potentially boosting the industry's order backlog to between €80 billion and €120 billion. While such models remain estimates rather than price guarantees, they highlight the wide gap between current market pricing and the potential upside some analysts see if Berlin follows through on its spending commitments.
For now, Rheinmetall's share price reflects the tension between a robust order pipeline and the geopolitical headwinds that have weighed on the stock for much of the year. The coming quarterly results will show whether operational momentum can close that gap.
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