Rheinmetall’s Halved Stock Price Belies a Record Order Book Ahead of August 6 Earnings Test
Published on 07/21/2026 at 03:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall shares are caught in a painful contradiction: a defence contractor reporting record orders and double-digit revenue growth, yet trading at half the level it reached just nine months ago. The stock now changes hands at around €987, down 45.5% from the €1,995 peak struck in September 2025. The market, which once priced in every geopolitical tailwind with abandon, has turned its attention to operational details — and to the fallout from a single cancelled naval programme that wiped out more than €500 million in market value overnight.
The sell-off has been brutal but orderly in technical terms. After hitting a 52-week low of €902.50 on June 25, the shares have clawed back about 9.4%. The 7-day change of +0.97% suggests tentative stabilisation, and the RSI(14) sits at 39.2 — neutral to slightly oversold, not panicked. Yet the 30-day performance remains deeply negative at –16.44%, and the stock still trades 33.9% below its 200-day moving average. With 30-day realised volatility at 69.2%, the name remains a nervous trade.
None of this is driven by deteriorating business fundamentals — quite the opposite. Rheinmetall closed fiscal 2025 with revenue of €9.935 billion and an order backlog of €63.8 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue rose 8% to €1.9 billion and operating profit jumped 17%. The backlog swelled further to €73 billion. Management is targeting full-year revenue of €14 billion to €14.5 billion, implying growth of 40–45%. New contract wins continue to roll in: a €100 million order from the German armed forces for the D-LBO digitalisation project, hardware and services to integrate digital communications into the vehicle fleet, with integration teams due to deploy between end-2027 and end-2028. Munitions and loitering ammunition are running strongly, and a cooperation with Space Norway for maritime space surveillance plus first deliveries from the new Unterlüß plant added near-term momentum.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
The stock’s problem is not a lack of contracts. It is one lost contract — the F126 frigate programme, cancelled unexpectedly by the German government at the end of June. That project had an estimated volume of up to €20 billion, and its absence now hangs over every earnings call. Bernstein Research remains constructive on the name, but Bank of America adjusted its sector view and stance on Rheinmetall in the wake of the cancellation. The debate has shifted from “how much can defence spending grow?” to “can the rest of the portfolio offset a single 20-billion-euro hole?”
That question will be put to the test on August 6, when Rheinmetall publishes its second-quarter results. For the first time, management will have to detail the financial impact of the F126 exit. The operating margin — reported at an unspecified level in Q1 — will be scrutinised for signs of strain. Investors want to see whether strong momentum in munitions and digitalisation can compensate for the lost naval programme, or whether the cancellation signals a broader shift in government procurement that could affect other projects.
Analysts are split on the answer. The bullish camp points to the sheer size of the €73 billion order book and the structural tailwind from higher NATO budgets and German special defence funds. The cautious side notes that the stock’s peak valuation assumed an almost linear growth trajectory that the F126 loss punctures. For now, the market is voting with the cautious. The shares are trading below all relevant moving averages, and the 52-week high is still 50.5% away.
What the current price does show is a market that has reset expectations dramatically. The euphoria that carried Rheinmetall to €1,995 has evaporated, replaced by a sober assessment of execution risk and programme concentration. The question now is not whether defence budgets continue to rise — they will — but whether investors are willing to pay the same multiple for a company that has just acknowledged the fragility of even the most promising backlog. The August 6 earnings release will provide the first solid evidence. Until then, the stock is consolidating around €987, waiting for direction.
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