Rheinmetall’s Raytheon Pact and Munitions Pipeline Can’t Stem the Slide as F126 Fallout Lingers
Published on 07/20/2026 at 18:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall has added a major joint-venture contract with Raytheon from the UK, along with orders for 155mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine and autonomous military convoy systems, to its already swelling order book. Yet the defence group’s share price, which nudged up 1.2% to €989.70 on Monday, remains deep in the red for the year — down 36.27% since January and 45.41% over the past twelve months.
The Raytheon deal, disclosed in recent days, marks the latest in a series of operational wins that underscore the sustained demand for the group’s land systems and munitions capabilities. Rheinmetall also secured contracts for 155mm shells destined for Ukraine and for autonomous convoy technology, both seen as structural growth areas in European defence. But investors have so far shown little enthusiasm, with the stock’s month-to-date loss of 18.05% highlighting just how fragile confidence has become.
At the root of the market’s caution sits the loss of the F126 frigate programme in late June, which handed a major naval contract to rival TKMS. That setback has weighed heavily on sentiment, coming at a time when the broader European defence sector is already grappling with debate over the affordability of rising military budgets and the potential strain on social welfare systems. For Rheinmetall, the F126 blow has undercut the narrative of a seamless order pipeline, even as other divisions continue to churn out new business.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Technically, the stock is showing signs of stabilisation above its 52-week low of €902.50, but the distance to key moving averages tells a starker story. The 200-day moving average stands at €1,494.80 — a level the share price undershoots by nearly 34% — while the 50-day average of €1,126.70 remains well out of reach. The relative strength index at 39.6 has exited the oversold zone, but the stock’s monthly volatility of 69.28% reflects the persistent nervousness among traders.
Bank of America retains a buy recommendation on Rheinmetall, though it has trimmed its price target in recognition of the changed market dynamics. The analyst community’s relatively upbeat stance contrasts with the near-universal wariness evident in price action. Investors appear to be waiting for tangible proof that the recent spate of contracts — from the Raytheon partnership to Ukraine ammunition — will translate into reliable earnings growth before committing fresh capital.
With a market capitalisation of €45.61bn, Rheinmetall remains a heavyweight in European defence. But the gap between its operational performance and its share price has rarely been wider. Until the stock reclaims its 50-day average and the F126 shadow recedes, the recovery will remain tentative — even as the order books stay full.
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