Rheinmetall’s Third Order in a Week Puts F126 Setback in Sharper Focus as Analysts Reduce Targets
Veröffentlicht: 07.07.2026 um 10:43 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The contradictions at Rheinmetall have rarely been starker. This week alone the DĂĽsseldorf-based defence group announced three new contracts, including a fresh artillery munitions deal for Ukraine, yet the stock remains deeply scarred by the recent cancellation of a major frigate programme and analysts are now split on where the shares are headed.
The latest order, disclosed on Wednesday, comes from an unnamed NATO member state and covers several thousand 155 mm artillery projectiles plus compatible modular propellant charges. Valued in the mid-double-digit million euro range, the ammunition has already been booked in the second quarter of 2026. Production is under way and full delivery is slated for completion by April 2027. Rheinmetall will supply ER02A1 B/B rounds, manufactured at its Spanish subsidiary Rheinmetall Expal Munitions, alongside DM72 charge modules produced by Nitrochemie. Both munition types are compatible with standard 155 mm weapon systems already in service across multiple NATO nations.
That deal follows a contract signed with Morocco on 3 July for seven mobile field hospitals, also worth a mid-double-digit million euro sum, and a separate triple-digit million euro order for four Skynex air defence systems placed just days earlier. The three wins come at a turbulent moment for the company. On 2 July, Rheinmetall was forced to issue an ad-hoc announcement that the F126 frigate programme had been scrapped, wiping as much as €300 million from this year’s expected revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Management has struck a calm tone, insisting that medium-term growth targets through 2030 remain largely on track. But the market reaction has been anything but settled. The stock surged 3.24% on Monday, leading the DAX gainers, before giving back 0.98% on Tuesday to close at €1,127.80. On a weekly basis the shares are still up 12.55%, though the 30-day picture shows a decline of 6.20%. The current price sits 43.47% below the 52-week high of €1,995.00 recorded in September 2025.
Analyst sentiment now reflects a deep divide. Christoph Laskawi at Deutsche Bank has cut his price target from €2,100 to €1,800 but retains a buy rating, arguing that the stock still offers more than 60% upside. JPMorgan’s David H. Perry is far more cautious, slashing his target to €1,350 and downgrading earnings estimates. Perry warns that defence technologies are evolving faster than anticipated, that the German government is taking longer to award new contracts, and that execution risks and margin pressure are mounting.
The uncertainty is etched into the share price’s behaviour. The relative strength index sits at 50.1, firmly neutral, while the annualised 30-day volatility remains elevated at 70.2% — a sign of the nervousness stirred by both the frigate crisis and the sudden burst of orders. Rheinmetall has yet to reclaim its 50-day moving average, and year-to-date losses stand at roughly 29%.
Investors will get a clearer picture on 6 August when the group publishes its second-quarter results. At that point it should become apparent how much of the F126 revenue hole the new contracts can fill. For now, analysts are pencilling in earnings per share of around €37.73 for the full 2026 year.
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