Rio Tinto Cashes In on Copper's Tariff-Fueled Rally and Quebec's Aluminium Megaproject

Rio Tinto enjoyed a double tailwind on Tuesday, as a sharp rebound in copper prices lifted its shares alongside those of other London-listed miners, while the group's own $1.5 billion bet on low-carbon aluminium in Quebec continued to underpin its long-term narrative. The stock climbed to 95.60 euros during the session and was lately quoted at 95.74 euros, putting it 38% higher since the start of the year and 84.6% above its level twelve months ago.

The immediate catalyst was copper. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange jumped to $13,924 per tonne, the highest since mid-May, while the Shanghai contract surged 1.3% to the equivalent of around 106,000 yuan per tonne. Reuters attributed the move to unresolved US tariff uncertainty and a tightening of supply outside the Americas. A White House order had adjusted import duties on some copper, aluminium, and iron products, but the core copper tariff issue remained unsettled, creating regional market distortions that pushed prices upward. Rio Tinto, Glencore, and Anglo American all advanced between 3% and 4% on the day.

For Rio Tinto, the rally is directly relevant. The miner’s first-quarter copper production rose 9% year-on-year, driven by the ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi, and it maintains full-year guidance of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes. Copper-equivalent output also increased by 9%. Though iron ore remains the dominant revenue earner – global production rose 12% to 82.8 million tonnes, with Pilbara output up 13% to 78.8 million tonnes and sales edging up 2% to 75.7 million tonnes – it is copper that is increasingly driving investor enthusiasm.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rio Tinto?

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto is pressing ahead with a transformative expansion of its AP60 aluminium smelter in Quebec. The company is investing $1.5 billion to install 96 high-efficiency electrolysis cells, which will boost primary aluminium production by 160,000 tonnes per year and lift total site capacity to 220,000 tonnes. The project also targets a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, aligning with Rio Tinto’s broader pivot toward materials critical to the energy transition. Commissioning is scheduled before the end of the year.

The FTSE 100 closed 0.3% higher, led by cyclical stocks such as miners and banks, with geopolitical tensions – including the Iran conflict and a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel – keeping oil prices stable but adding a layer of risk for metals markets. Rio Tinto’s shares trade 9% below their 52-week high of 105.22 euros, and the relative strength index of 47.8 suggests no overheating. The stock is comfortably above its 200-day moving average of 72.91 euros. Yet analyst consensus remains a cautious “Hold,” with many banks yet to update their price targets.

The key question now is whether copper can sustain its gains. So far, the price surge has been driven by tariff-driven uncertainty and supply distortions rather than a clear improvement in end-demand. If copper stays strong, Rio Tinto stands to benefit further. Should the effect fade, the sector’s recent momentum may quickly evaporate – though the Quebec aluminium expansion offers a longer-term counterweight that does not depend on today’s trade policy.

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