Rocket Lab Faces New Rivalry in Space Defense Race as Golden Dome Heats Up

The competitive landscape for Rocket Lab’s prized role in the U.S. Space Force’s Golden Dome program just got more crowded. Northrop Grumman has enlisted Apex to help develop space-based interceptor (SBI) capabilities, with an on-orbit demonstration targeted for 2027 and ground tests already complete. The move makes Northrop the third major defense prime—after Raytheon and Anduril—to team with a specialized space startup for the program, underscoring the multibillion-dollar stakes.

Rocket Lab already has a foot in that door. On May 7, it was selected alongside Raytheon to demonstrate advanced SBI capabilities for the U.S. Space Force, a contract it framed as a contribution to national missile defense. In its first-quarter filings, the company broadened its own pitch, saying both launch and satellite capabilities would be deployed—a signal that its defense role extends beyond any single technology.

Yet the stock has been on a wild ride. After a 14.7% plunge Monday to $122.39—its third straight losing session—shares recovered nearly 2% on Tuesday to $124.80. The paper remains more than 17% below its 52-week high of $150.23, even after a year-long rally that has more than quadrupled the share price. Year to date, Rocket Lab is still up roughly 64%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab USA?

Three forces converged to rattle investors last week. First, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded during an engine test in Florida, sending tremors equivalent to a magnitude 2.5 quake and heavily damaging the launch complex. The incident triggered a sector-wide reassessment. Second, SpaceX is reportedly targeting a June 12 initial public offering at a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion, forcing investors to scrutinize smaller players’ price tags. Third, insiders cashed out $18.4 million in shares just before the sell-off. COO Frank Klein sold 36,860 shares for about $5.4 million under a Rule 10b5-1 plan set up last September. General Counsel Arjun Kampani unloaded nearly 24,000 shares for roughly $3.5 million via a similar plan. Director Alexander Slusky disposed of 60,000 shares indirectly through a family trust for nearly $9 million, and President Marvin Clevenger sold 3,500 shares for $513,000. While the insider plans were pre-arranged, the timing has amplified market anxiety.

None of this obscures the operational progress. Rocket Lab posted first-quarter revenue of $200.3 million, up 63% year over year, and narrowed its net loss from $60.6 million to $45 million. Its order backlog stands at $2.2 billion, underpinned by more than 70 committed missions. For the second quarter, management guided for revenue between $225 million and $240 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $20 million to $26 million. The company recently acquired Motiv Space Systems, now operating as Rocket Lab Robotics, which previously supplied robotic systems for NASA’s Perseverance rover. It also passed a System Requirements Review for a Space Development Agency satellite program, pushing its total SDA contract awards past $1.3 billion.

Even so, the valuation remains a stumbling block. Analysts rate the stock a “Moderate Buy” on average, but their mean price target of $97.19 implies a roughly 22% discount to Tuesday’s close. The relative strength index of 47 suggests neutral momentum, while the stock’s 135% volatility keeps it vulnerable to sharp reversals. With Northrop and Apex now circling the same defense prize, Rocket Lab must translate its launch and satellite capabilities into demonstrable program milestones—lest the market begin to price in a narrowing window of opportunity.

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