Rocket Lab Rallies 3.6% as Analyst Upgrade and Nasdaq-100 Catalysts Override SpaceX Rotation

Rocket Lab shares climbed 3.61% to €91.90 on Monday, recovering a portion of the prior session’s losses as a rare convergence of an analyst upgrade and a looming index inclusion drew buyers back into the stock. The bounce followed a turbulent Friday, when the historic SpaceX initial public offering triggered a rotation out of established space names, wiping several percentage points off Rocket Lab’s market value.

The selling pressure proved short-lived. Investors refocused on a string of concrete catalysts, starting with the company’s progress on a major defence contract. Rocket Lab successfully completed the System Requirements Review for a Space Development Agency satellite programme valued at $816 million. The milestone clears the way for the next phase of building satellites with missile-warning and tracking capabilities — a segment that now accounts for roughly 70% of total revenue, underscoring the shift from launch services to spacecraft manufacturing.

That contract achievement overlapped with an even larger structural tailwind: Rocket Lab’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, effective 22 June. Chief Executive Peter Beck described the event as a “historic moment for the space economy.” Passively managed index funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 — led by the QQQ ETF, which oversees approximately $800 billion — will be forced to buy the stock ahead of that date. Including derivatives and structured products, the entire ecosystem tied to the index is estimated at over $1.4 trillion, creating an automatic demand floor that is independent of market sentiment.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?

The buying pressure is already building. ARK Invest snapped up around 3.29 million shares on 12 June, positioning ahead of the index switch. KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock added further momentum, upgrading Rocket Lab from “Sector Weight” to “Overweight” and setting a $135 price target. Leshock called the recent pullback — triggered by capital moving into the SpaceX debut — a “compelling buying opportunity.” His thesis leans on a rapid acceleration in NASA activity, which he contends has not been seen since the Apollo era, combined with exponential growth in satellite constellations and structurally constrained launch capacity. Well-capitalised players focused on national security and NASA contracts, he argues, are set to benefit disproportionately.

Operationally, the business continues to build momentum. Rocket Lab’s order backlog has reached $2.2 billion, spanning more than 70 missions. At its New Zealand launch complex, the company is preparing a record run of Electron launches. A ten-year contract with Japanese earth-observation firm Synspective calls for ten dedicated missions beginning in 2027. Meanwhile, the first flight of the reusable Neutron rocket is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026, following delays in tank testing. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue hit $200.3 million — a 63.5% increase year-over-year — although adjusted EBITDA remained negative at -$11.8 million.

Despite the recent volatility, Rocket Lab shares are up roughly 41% year-to-date and trade comfortably above their 200-day moving average of €63.27. The stock still sits about 31% below its 52-week high of €133.80 from May. The relative strength index reads 45.6, signalling neutral momentum and room to run before entering overbought territory. The real test comes on 22 June, when the market will reveal how much of the anticipated index buying has already been priced in.

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