Rocket Lab’s 90th Mission Countdown Begins as NASA Triples Down — Can Earnings Catch Up to Valuation?
26.06.2026 - 18:45:03 | boerse-global.de
The launchpad at Mahia, New Zealand, is ready for business. Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket is poised for its 90th flight, a mission dubbed “Ten Owl Of Ten” that will carry a StriX radar satellite for long-time customer Synspective into a 552-kilometer orbit. The launch window opened Friday at 6:45 p.m. CET, with weather conditions under close watch. It marks the tenth dedicated mission for the Japanese firm, cementing one of the longest-running commercial partnerships in the Electron program.
But while the engineering team ticks off milestones, the stock remains stuck in a deep correction. At Friday’s close of €75.30, shares had clawed back roughly 6% from the previous session, but the weekly loss still hovered near 20% and the gap to the 52-week high of €133.80 stood at almost 44%. The rout has been brutal — at one point during the week, the stock hit €70.90, down about 45% from its May peak.
The selling pressure has been driven not by any failure in Rocket Lab’s business, but by a gravitational shift in investor attention. SpaceX went public in mid-June, sucking enormous capital flows into the newly listed sector giant. That rotation has crushed former market darlings like Rocket Lab, which have watched their shares get hammered even as their operational cadence accelerates. The relative strength index (RSI) recently dropped to 33.5, flirting with oversold territory.
Against that backdrop, Rocket Lab secured a fresh vote of confidence from NASA. The space agency awarded the company three dedicated Electron launches under its VADR framework, a program with a potential total value of up to $300 million over ten years. Two of the missions are for flagship science projects: PolSIR, which will study high-altitude ice clouds over tropical and subtropical regions using a pair of CubeSats launched on separate rockets from Mahia starting no earlier than June 2027; and TSIS-2, which will measure the sun’s total radiative output and is slated to lift off in early 2027, also from the New Zealand pad. NASA cited Rocket Lab’s track record of over 90 launches, pinpoint satellite deployment accuracy, and rapid turnaround times between missions as reasons for the selection.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
The TSIS-2 mission carries particular weight. NASA booked it with only seven months between contract signing and launch — a record pace. The agency originally planned to fly the instrument on a different provider’s vehicle but switched to Rocket Lab, drawn by the Electron’s ability to place payloads within a few meters of their target orbit. In addition to those missions, Rocket Lab will launch NASA’s Aspera mission later this year and is advancing in-space refueling technology that could prove critical for future Mars missions.
The operational engine is humming. Rocket Lab now produces a new Electron roughly every eleven days and has delivered more than 260 satellites to orbit since the program began. Its backlog recently swelled to $2.2 billion, and first-quarter revenue growth hit 64% year-over-year. The company also broke its own mission turnaround record by executing a US Space Force launch in under 17 hours — ten hours faster than the previous best.
Yet the market’s cold shoulder reflects a valuation that still gives skeptics ammunition. Rocket Lab trades at 45 times annual revenue, a premium even to the newly listed SpaceX. While analysts project 41% revenue growth this year, that pace is not enough for some investors to justify the multiple, especially with the company still generating negative operating cash flow and the larger Neutron rocket program yet to reach key milestones. Wall Street is split: ten analysts rate the shares a buy, three say hold, and the average price target sits at $108.70. KeyBanc upgraded Rocket Lab to Overweight in mid-June with a $135 target, arguing the SpaceX-induced sell-off had created attractive entry points for companies with strong competitive positions.
Rocket Lab at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the stock remains caught between the upward pull of operational achievements and the downward drag of capital rotation. Until the sector’s valuation premium normalizes, Rocket Lab’s record — more than 90 launches, a deepening NASA relationship, and a production line running at one rocket every eleven days — may do little to shield shareholders from the turbulence.
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