Rocket Lab’s Launch Pipeline Keeps Moving Even as Investors Turn Defensive
Published on 07/17/2026 at 06:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Rocket Lab is set to launch LOXSAT 1 from New Zealand on Friday, adding another technically demanding mission to a run of recent space-sector wins. Yet the stock is still being punished, with traders focusing less on the company’s operational momentum than on the financial strain tied to its planned takeover of Iridium Communications.
The mission will lift off from Launch Complex 1 on the Mahia Peninsula aboard an Electron rocket carrying a Photon-LEO satellite bus developed with Eta Space under NASA’s Tipping Point programme. Over nine months, the spacecraft is designed to test cryogenic oxygen fluid management in orbit, collecting data on how to store and transfer deep-cold liquids in space. That work is seen as an important step toward future propellant depots and, eventually, lunar or Mars missions.
Rocket Lab is doing more than providing launch services here. It is supplying the rocket, the satellite bus and the full integration package, underscoring how far the company has moved from being a pure launch provider toward a vertically integrated space systems business.
The problem for shareholders is that none of that has stopped the sell-off. On Thursday, the stock fell 11.43 percent to EUR 58.90 from EUR 66.50 on Wednesday. In the primary article, the shares were said to have closed Thursday at EUR 59.10. Over the past seven days, the stock has lost almost 17 percent, while the decline over the past 30 days is close to 35 percent; the primary article put the monthly drop at more than 37 percent. Either way, the move has been severe. The current price is 55.98 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 133.80 reached on 27 May, and 12.51 percent under the 200-day average of EUR 67.32.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
Rocket Lab’s recent operating updates have been strong. The company reported a successful VICTUS-HAZE mission for the U.S. Space Force, with launch, satellite delivery and rapid in-orbit manoeuvres all covered under a single contract. It also completed a full second-stage engine test for the Neutron rocket, its reusable medium-lift vehicle. Separately, the primary article pointed to LOXSAT 1 as another marker of technical strength and noted that Rocket Lab delivered a record 16-hour turnaround for a U.S. Space Force launch in June.
Still, the market appears fixated on the proposed Iridium acquisition. Rocket Lab announced the deal at the end of June, valuing Iridium Communications at roughly USD 8 billion. According to the secondary article, the transaction is worth around USD 54 per Iridium share and combines cash and stock, with Iridium holders to receive USD 27 in cash plus Rocket Lab shares at a fixed exchange ratio. Piper Sandler recently initiated coverage with a Neutral rating, citing financing and integration risks linked to the transaction. The primary article likewise said the bank downgraded the stock to Neutral and highlighted concerns over dilution and the complexity of integrating Iridium’s global L-band network.
That caution has been enough to overshadow a set of otherwise impressive growth numbers. Revenue rose 45.8 percent over the last 12 months, far ahead of the S&P 500 median of 7.5 percent. But the company’s operating margin remains deeply negative at minus 33.2 percent, versus an index median of plus 18.4 percent. Investors are also weighing the fact that Rocket Lab lost 23.6 percent over six straight trading sessions to mid-July, wiping out around USD 14 billion in market value.
The debate over valuation remains split. Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case price target on 8 July from USD 185 to USD 293 and kept an Overweight rating, with a base case of USD 105. The bank described Rocket Lab as increasingly resembling a smaller SpaceX and argued that the Iridium deal would add a global satellite network, valuable L-band spectrum and millions of recurring subscribers, transforming the company into a more vertically integrated space platform.
Rocket Lab at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the shares are looking stretched to the downside. The 14-day RSI stands at 29.6 in the secondary article and 29.7 in the primary one, both readings that point to an overbought-to-oversold threshold being crossed on standard charting measures. Annualised volatility is hovering at almost 97 percent, or 97 percent in the primary account, leaving the stock highly vulnerable to sharp swings in either direction.
For now, Rocket Lab sits between two narratives that are pulling in opposite directions: a launch and systems business delivering on mission after mission, and a market increasingly worried that a large, expensive acquisition may dilute returns before the next growth phase can fully take hold.
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