Rocket Lab Stock Retreats From Highs as $8 Billion Iridium Deal Fuels Analyst Price Target Hikes

Rocket Lab's shares have lost more than a quarter of their value over the past 30 days, slicing nearly 50% off the May peak of €133.80. Yet on Thursday the stock settled at €66.40, within a hair's breadth of its 200-day moving average near €67.30 — a technical level that often determines whether a sell-off deepens or reverses. The 14-day relative strength index has slipped to 34.3, edging into oversold territory where contrarian buyers typically emerge.

The brutal price action stands in stark contrast to what analysts are saying. Citizens analyst Trevor Walsh lifted his price target from €95 to €130, maintaining an "Outperform" rating. His rationale centers on the planned $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications, which he argues will catapult Rocket Lab into higher-value space applications and create a vertically integrated platform spanning launch services, satellite manufacturing, spectrum assets, and in-orbit communications — all under one roof.

Roth Capital's Suji Desilva followed suit, raising his target from €100 to also €130 and reaffirming a buy rating. Desilva considers the Iridium deal transformative, giving Rocket Lab a powerful hand against larger competitors by bundling launch capability, satellite engineering, and precious spectrum. He also expects the company to roll out additional space-based applications over time, boosting the share of recurring revenue from communications and data services.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?

Operational momentum provides the foundation for that optimism. Rocket Lab posted record first-quarter revenue of $200 million, up 63% year-over-year. The backlog surged 106% from a year earlier to $2.2 billion, and the company sold more launch contracts in Q1 than in all of last year combined. Management guided for second-quarter revenue of roughly $233 million. Those numbers help explain why Morgan Stanley has kept a strikingly optimistic target of $293 per share — well above current levels — even as some analysts at TipRanks caution that the valuation, at a market cap of roughly €44 billion, remains ambitious relative to sales.

Not everything has gone smoothly. A planned mission for client iQPS, dubbed "The Grain Goddess Provides," was postponed on Wednesday, a short-term drag that weighed on sentiment. CEO Peter Beck recently framed the competitive landscape in stark terms: of the more than 100 startups that raised billions in venture capital over the past decade to enter commercial rocketry, only two remain — Rocket Lab and SpaceX. Beck calls SpaceX a "friendly rival," noting that the two firms compete for launch contracts but also collaborate, with Rocket Lab supplying reaction wheels and other components to larger industry players.

On the technology front, the company successfully tested its Archimedes vacuum engine, a critical component for the upcoming Neutron rocket. First flight of Neutron remains on track for late 2026, a milestone that many investors view as the single most important catalyst for the stock. Until then, Rocket Lab's shares are likely to oscillate between operational progress — such as recurring revenue growth and engine milestones — and persistent valuation concerns, all while the 200-day line serves as the immediate battleground.

The analyst consensus price targets currently range from €96 to €135, implying significant upside from the current €66 level. Whether the stock closes that gap depends on how quickly the market prices in the full scope of the Iridium integration — and whether upcoming launches and quarterly reports continue to beat expectations.

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