Rockets Fly, Shares Sink: SpaceX Delivers Starlink and Starship Milestones While Stock Teeters at One-Year Lows

SpaceX is gearing up for one of its busiest single days in months, with two launches scheduled within hours of each other. A Falcon 9 is set to lift 24 Starlink V2-Mini satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base on Monday, while in Texas the company prepares for the thirteenth flight test of the Starship megarocket — this time carrying 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. Yet the operational rhythm belies a market reality that has turned harshly against Elon Musk’s space venture.

The stock closed Friday at €108.40, down 5.39% on the day and 14.78% for the week. Over the past month, the decline has deepened to 34.80%, leaving the shares just 0.99% above a 52-week low of €107.34 set last Friday. The distance from the June mid-year peak of €194.46 now stands at 44.26%. With a relative strength index of 34.6, the stock is technically oversold, yet no reversal has materialized.

A Starship Setback That Wounded Confidence

The latest leg of the sell-off was triggered by a scrubbed Starship test on July 17. Two Raptor engines required replacement, delaying the launch and pushing the stock below its initial public offering price of $135 for the first time. That single day saw a 5.4% drop to $123.99, and the pressure has intensified since. The abort has refocused attention on the technical risks embedded in SpaceX’s most ambitious program, even as the company insists it is merely a routine step in development.

Short sellers have piled in aggressively. According to Ortex, paper profits on short positions had reached $8.7 billion by mid-July, with 49% of the free float lent out. S3 Partners offered a more conservative estimate of roughly $5 billion on a short position of about 192 million shares, representing 30% of free float with a notional value of $25 billion. The market capitalization has shrunk from a record $2.64 trillion in mid-June to approximately $1.63 trillion — a loss of over $1 trillion in a matter of weeks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

Musk responded on X with a blunt warning to short sellers: the probability of a large short position surviving against SpaceX long-term is very low. The following day he reiterated the threat, cautioning institutions with significant bearish bets. The billionaire’s personal fortune, tracked by Bloomberg, has fallen from $1.32 trillion to $792 billion, as Tesla — about 23% off its yearly high — has added to the strain.

Buying the Dips, Eyeing the Lockup

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has moved in the opposite direction. On July 17, the fund family purchased 147,623 SpaceX shares across four ETFs for $18.3 million, with the flagship ARKK fund accounting for 95,129 shares worth $11.8 million. Since the IPO in June, ARK has invested more than $475 million in the stock, including $52 million in the prior week alone. To fund the purchases, ARK sold 26,002 shares of Robinhood.

The market’s anxiety is not solely a reaction to the Starship hiccup. A looming insider lockup expiration threatens to add further supply: approximately 900 million shares are due to be released after the company’s first quarterly report, potentially flooding the market. Meanwhile, SpaceX bond yields are creeping toward junk territory, signaling that debt investors are also reassessing risk. JPMorgan has adopted a cautious tone, while Raymond James remains the most bullish on the Street with a price target of $800. The consensus among analysts stands at $235.34, implying roughly 90% upside from current levels.

SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

A Pentagon Deal That Could Shift the Narrative

Amid the turbulence, SpaceX is reportedly in talks with the U.S. Department of Defense over a multibillion-dollar contract for AI data centers. Such an agreement would provide a recurring revenue stream that could help offset losses in the company’s artificial intelligence business. The AI subsidiary xAI, acquired in February 2026, posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion in 2025. SpaceX itself reported a net loss of $4.9 billion for the same year. At roughly 80 times revenue, the valuation remains stretched.

The upcoming quarterly report, expected in August, along with a potential second attempt at Starship Flight 13, will be closely watched. For now, the company is executing on its most visible front — launching rockets — while the financial markets deliver a far less forgiving verdict.

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