Saab Bolsters European Defense with AI Stake and Gripen Expansion, Yet Shares Sink 39% from Peak
27.06.2026 - 16:07:54 | boerse-global.de
Saab has spent June reshaping its portfolio — investing €11.1 million in a Paris-based military AI startup, offloading a non-core software arm, and completing a long-awaited fighter jet delivery to Hungary. The strategic activity, however, has done nothing to arrest the stock’s slide. The shares ended last week at $24.97, nearly 39% below the January 2026 high of $40.77 and down more than 13% over the past month. The weekly loss alone came in at almost 5%.
The most eye-catching move is Saab’s entry into the competition for European defense AI sovereignty. Mid-June, the group acquired a 10% stake in Comand AI for €11.1 million, a deal still pending regulatory approval. Comand AI builds AI-powered planning software for military command systems. Saab plans to integrate this technology into its C2 and C5ISR platforms, notably the GlobalEye surveillance aircraft. The partnership is squarely aimed at challenging Palantir’s Maven system, the current go-to for NATO but one with no European alternative. Comand AI, hitherto focused on land forces, will expand into the air domain through Saab, with maritime applications expected later this year.
At the same time, Saab is trimming its flanks. It agreed to sell its Public Safety Solutions division to Norwegian firm Omda AS. The unit supplies software to police and fire services, employs around 75 people, and generates roughly SEK 80 million in revenue. Saab will receive SEK 15 million upfront, with an additional earn-out of up to SEK 45 million. The transaction is slated to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, and Saab says it will publish adjusted financials for prior periods to maintain comparability.
On the operational front, Saab delivered the final two Gripen C fighters to Hungary on June 23, taking Budapest’s fleet to 18 active C/D models. The jets are configured to the MS20 Block 2 standard, with upgraded radar, enhanced Link-16 datalinks, and modern IFF systems. The delivery closed a contract amendment signed in January 2024 between the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and Hungary’s Ministry of Defence. It is a milestone in execution, but investors have taken it in stride — it generated no new order volume.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Saab?
The broader Gripen pipeline remains substantial, even if it has yet to stir the share price. Sweden has earmarked up to 16 Gripen C/D for delivery to Ukraine, while Kyiv is also planning to buy as many as 20 new Gripen E/F. Further down the line, Canada is mulling an order of up to 72 Gripen E/F, and Brazil continues to eye another 20 aircraft. These potential deals, combined with the Comand AI strategic bet, paint a picture of a company working multiple fronts. Yet the market appears focused on the here and now.
That here and now is technically fragile. Saab’s relative strength index stands at 33.5, hovering near oversold territory but without a clear reversal signal. The stock trades roughly 13% below its 50-day moving average and about 19% below the 200-day line. The 52-week low of $23.29 is just 7% away — a level that could be tested if the coming earnings fail to impress.
Pareto Securities upgraded Saab from Hold to Buy last week, but trimmed its price target from SEK 650 to SEK 620. The analyst move reflects a revision of expectations after the steep selloff: the downgrade in target acknowledges lower anticipated order intake and margins, while the upgrade signals the selloff has gone too far. The debate over valuation is now recalibrated, not resolved.
Saab at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
All eyes turn to July 17, 2026. That morning at 7:30 CET, Saab will publish its second-quarter results, followed by a webcast with CEO Micael Johansson and CFO Anna Wijkander. The numbers on order intake, margins, and cash flow will be the real test. Strategic progress is one thing; proof of execution in the profit-and-loss statement is quite another.
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