Saab Faces a Defining Week as NATO Summit Nears and Shares Languish Near Lows
28.06.2026 - 05:33:15 | boerse-global.de
The Swedish defence group Saab heads into a period where political momentum, rather than corporate news, may set the tone for a stock that has shed nearly 40% of its value since January. With the NATO summit in Ankara scheduled for July 7–8, investors are watching whether the alliance can inject fresh urgency into European defence budgets — a factor that could spill directly into Saab’s order pipeline.
NATO Deputy Commander John Stringer has framed the gathering as a test of the 77-year-old alliance’s resolve, aiming to push for higher spending, reaffirm support for Ukraine, and underscore unity at a time when the future footprint of US troops in Europe remains uncertain. For Saab shareholders, that makes the summit the most significant sector catalyst in the near term, especially given that the company’s own calendar is quiet until the second-quarter results on July 17, when CEO Micael Johansson and CFO Anna Wijkander will host a webcast at 10:00 CET.
The stock closed Friday at $24.97, a level that marks a roughly 39% retreat from the year’s high of $40.77 set on January 27. Since the start of 2025, Saab has lost about 18% of its value, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 33.5 points to an increasingly oversold condition. The current price sits just 7% above the 52-week trough of $23.29, while both the 50-day moving average ($28.62) and the 200-day moving average ($30.82) remain well overhead — a technical picture that suggests any recovery attempt would need a strong external trigger.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Saab?
The macro calendar adds further variables. On July 1, Eurostat publishes its flash estimate for euro-area inflation, alongside manufacturing PMI readings for the region. US data due June 30 includes consumer confidence and job openings, followed by June employment figures on July 2 — a day early because US markets will be closed on July 3. As a cyclical industrial name, Saab is sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations that such releases can provoke.
Operationally, the company has been busy, even if the stock has not reflected it. In June, Saab completed the delivery of Gripen fighter jets to Hungary under an existing contract, and it secured new orders from France and Denmark covering anti-tank weapons and advanced radar systems. Looking further out, the group placed €11 million into Paris-based artificial intelligence firm Comand AI in June 2026, acquiring a 10% stake that bolsters its position in networked battlefield systems.
Morningstar analyst Loredana Muharremi sees a clear disconnect between Saab’s long-term prospects and its current valuation. She assigns a fair value of SEK 610 per share, implying a 19% upside from Friday’s close. While the company’s order backlog is at record levels, Muharremi warns that the biggest risk lies in ramping up industrial production to meet that demand — a challenge shared across the defence sector. Still, she argues that secular trends such as rising European defence spending and the expansion of missile-defence systems provide a favourable tailwind that the market may be underestimating at these beaten-down levels.
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