Saab Shares Remain Under Pressure Despite Broker Upgrade and GlobalEye Risk Clearance

The defence contractor’s stock has been sliding even as the company clears a potential obstacle to a major contract and wins a rare upgrade from analysts. Saab closed the week at $25.01, down 4.8% over the five sessions and roughly 18% lower since the start of the year. The shares are trading near their 52-week low of $23.29, just 7% above that floor, while a rally to the year’s peak of $40.77 would require a near-40% snapback.

Pareto Securities has tried to spark a turnaround, upgrading the stock from “Hold” to “Buy” and setting a price target of SEK 620. The analysts argue the market is overreacting to shifting budget priorities. Saab’s forward EV/EBIT multiple has collapsed from 42 to 23 over the past year — a compression only surpassed in Europe by Rheinmetall. “The fear of a budget shift toward drones is exaggerated for Saab,” Pareto wrote. So far, however, the recommendation has failed to generate buying momentum.

On the operational front, CEO Micael Johansson moved on June 25 to defuse a specific worry. Canadian media had reported that a potential GlobalEye order could be derailed if Washington withheld approval for the American Multifunction Advanced Data Link to be installed on the aircraft. Johansson told Dagens industri that Saab can integrate any type of data link — the system is already largely prepared — effectively neutralising that technical risk. The clarification came three weeks after Canada’s defence investment agency named Saab the preferred supplier for an airborne early-warning capability, but the agency stressed that the designation does not constitute a procurement commitment. Talks continue; no contract has been signed.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Saab?

While investors wait for Canada to turn words into orders, Saab is pushing ahead with its own technology bets. The company invested €11.1 million in Paris-based AI start-up Comand AI for a 10% stake. The software is intended to enhance the GlobalEye’s surveillance capabilities and to help build a European alternative to Palantir’s Maven system for NATO. At the same time, Saab is streamlining its portfolio: its public-sector software unit is being sold to Norway’s Omda AS for an initial SEK 15 million, with up to SEK 45 million in additional payments possible. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The technical picture offers little comfort. The stock sits roughly 13% below its 50-day moving average of $28.62 and almost 19% below the 200-day average of $30.82. The relative strength index stands at 33.7, creeping toward oversold territory but without a clear reversal signal. A slide below the $23.29 mark would set a new 52-week low.

All eyes now turn to July 17, when Saab publishes second-quarter results at 7:30 a.m. CET, followed by a webcast with Johansson and CFO Anna Wijkander. Pareto anticipates 18% revenue growth and an operating margin just above 10%. However, the order intake is likely to disappoint on a pure timing effect: Poland’s submarine deal, worth around SEK 26 billion, is expected to slip into the third quarter.

Beyond the numbers, investors will be listening for updates on production capacity, the Gripen pipeline, and concrete contract progress with Canada or Ukraine — the kind of catalysts that might finally pull the stock away from its lows. Johansson’s GlobalEye clarification has removed one technical hurdle, but the market is still waiting for a signature on the dotted line.

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