SAP Edges Higher on Brussels Settlement Hopes, But Margin Squeeze and Quiet Period Keep Lid on Rally
Published on 06/29/2026 at 15:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP shares managed a modest rebound on Monday, climbing 1% to €137.52 as the software giant inched away from its recent 52-week low. The uptick came as investors weighed a potentially game?changing olive branch from the company’s headquarters in Walldorf: a compromise proposal with the European Commission that could spare SAP a hefty antitrust fine.
The EU is reviewing commitments from SAP to resolve a long?running dispute over alleged obstruction of third?party maintenance providers. Under the proposed deal, SAP would offer more flexible licensing terms and greater freedom of choice for service partners. A green light from Brussels would remove a major regulatory overhang that has weighed on the stock throughout the year.
Yet for all the relief the settlement offer provides, the broader picture remains deeply troubled. Since the start of 2025, SAP shares have shed nearly 32% — and on a 12?month basis the loss swells to around 47%. The Friday closing price of €136.16 was a painful reminder that the stock sits just 4% above its lowest level of the year. The 200?day moving average, a key technical gauge, is now roughly 25% above the current price.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The underlying pressure comes from a squeeze on profitability. Goldman Sachs this week trimmed its forecast for SAP’s second?half gross margin to 72.8% from 73.3%, citing the cost of recent acquisitions such as Dremio and Prior Labs. The company is ploughing heavily into cloud and artificial?intelligence infrastructure, and those investments are eating into operating leverage. The broader tech sector is also sending warning signals: Accenture recently slashed its revenue outlook, and Oracle’s eye?watering capital?expenditure plans of up to $95 billion have unsettled investors worried about runaway hardware costs.
SAP’s massive share?buyback programme — up to €10 billion authorised through 2027, with a first tranche already completed at an average price of €161.16 — has done little to stem the tide. The stock has continued to slide even as the company repurchases its own equity.
Analysts, however, remain surprisingly bullish. Both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies maintain buy recommendations, with Jefferies cutting its price target to €210 but still seeing roughly 50% upside. The average of nine analyst estimates points to a target of around €219, implying a potential gain of more than 60% from current levels. The bull case rests on SAP’s AI strategy and improving automation tools, which they argue will eventually translate into higher revenue growth.
For now, the company is locked in a quiet period ahead of second?quarter results due on 23 July 2026. Management is barred from commenting on revenue, margins or cloud momentum. In the first quarter, cloud contract signings surged 20% year?on?year, and investors will be watching closely to see whether that pace can be sustained. If the numbers disappoint, the €10 billion buyback may offer little protection against further downside.
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