SAP Hovers on the Edge as Q2 Earnings and a Billion-Euro AI Bet Collide
Published on 07/23/2026 at 04:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tension around SAP is palpable. The software giant’s stock slid 4.29% on Wednesday to €130.36, leaving it a hair’s breadth — just 0.34% — above its 52-week low of €129.92. With the second-quarter earnings report due after the US market close on July 23, the shares have now shed 37.43% since the start of the year. Over a 12-month horizon, the decline is even starker: the stock has lost nearly half its value from the July 2025 peak of €254.15.
The selling has been relentless. In the seven sessions leading up to the report, SAP has given up 7.47%. The broader technology market has been cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index pointing to growing investor wariness, but SAP’s slide has been particularly acute. The stock now trades 25.33% below its 200-day moving average of €174.79, a gap that confirms a deep downtrend. A 30-day annualized volatility reading of roughly 34% underscores just how jumpy the market has become around this name.
The Cloud Number That Matters Most
All eyes are on the cloud segment. For the second quarter, the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha forecasts cloud revenue of €6.255 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 24.3% on a currency-adjusted basis. For the full year, SAP has guided for cloud revenue between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion — a 23% to 25% increase over the €21.02 billion booked in 2025. Combined cloud and software revenue is expected to land in a range of €36.3 billion to €36.8 billion.
The question is whether management will reaffirm that full-year framework. If the guidance holds, the stock could stabilize near current levels, especially with the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 37.2 — a reading that suggests the shares are oversold. A confirmation of the outlook, combined with no nasty surprises in the backlog, could unlock a short-term relief rally.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
But the risks are equally clear. A downward revision to the cloud forecast — or to margins — would almost certainly trigger another wave of selling. JP Morgan analysts have flagged that SAP needs to invest more aggressively to keep pace with intensifying competition, and they expect further acquisitions. The management itself struck a cautious tone in April, noting that hitting its targets depended on factors including the resolution of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the contribution from the recently acquired data management firm Reltio.
A Billion-Euro AI Bet Arrives Just in Time
Amid the pre-earnings jitters, SAP made a strategic move that underscores its ambitions in artificial intelligence. On July 20, the company closed the acquisition of Prior Labs, a Freiburg-based startup specializing in tabular foundation models — AI systems designed for structured business data. SAP has committed to investing over €1 billion over four years to build Prior Labs into an independent AI research lab.
Prior Labs’ flagship model, TabPFN-2.6, tops the TabArena benchmark and can deliver results in seconds that traditional AutoML methods take roughly four hours to produce. The startup, which launched just 15 months ago with a €9 million pre-seed round, counts renowned AI researchers Yann LeCun and Bernhard Schölkopf among its scientific advisors. Its founders are Frank Hutter, Noah Hollmann, and Sauraj Gambhir.
SAP plans to integrate the technology into its AI Core services, the Business Data Cloud, and the Joule AI assistant. The acquisition signals that the company is serious about positioning itself as a beneficiary of the AI wave rather than a laggard — a narrative that has weighed on the stock as investors fret about disruption from generative AI.
The Chart Says Caution, the Calendar Says Decisive
Technically, the picture remains fragile. The RSI at 37.1 points to persistent selling pressure, though it stops short of signaling an outright oversold condition. The distance to the 50-day moving average of €144.35 shows how far the short-term trend has deteriorated.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The earnings release on the evening of July 23 is the catalyst that could break the deadlock. The market will be watching not just the headline cloud revenue number but also the order backlog and any commentary on how the Prior Labs investment will translate into growth. SAP’s market capitalization currently stands at roughly €162 billion — a level that offers little support if the outlook disappoints.
Two paths lie ahead. If SAP holds its cloud guidance and the backlog shows resilience, the oversold technical setup could support a bounce near the current floor. If the company cuts its forecast or signals that AI investments will weigh on margins for longer than expected, new lows are all but certain. The answer comes tonight.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 23 July
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
