SAP's 50% Rout Paints Technical Picture as Cloud Backlog Hits €21.9B and Oracle Shock Weighs on Sector
21.06.2026 - 13:54:45 | boerse-global.de
From an all-time high of €280.30 in February 2025 to a close of €134.00 last Friday — SAP’s stock has been cut in half. The 52-week low of €132.26, set just two sessions earlier, left the shares barely above technical support. With a relative strength index of 33.6, the equity is deep in oversold territory, while the gap below its 200-day moving average has widened to nearly 28%.
Operationally, the software giant continues to deliver. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose to €9.6 billion, operating profit jumped 24% to €2.9 billion, and cloud revenue expanded at a 27% clip. The cloud backlog reached €21.9 billion on a currency?adjusted basis. For the full year, management targets cloud revenue of €25.8–26.2 billion — growth of 23% to 25% — and operating profit in a range of €11.9–12.3 billion.
Yet the market’s focus has shifted to headwinds that could slow that momentum. Oracle’s announcement of up to $95 billion in capital expenditure has reignited concerns about a cost spiral across the cloud sector. Goldman Sachs recently cut its margin forecast for the second half of 2026, citing rising hardware costs. An absence of interest?rate cuts until 2027, according to the same bank, is compressing valuation multiples for high?growth names. On top of that, a large customer in the Middle East is pulling back, and one?time benefits that boosted first?quarter cloud growth will not repeat in Q2.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
SAP’s leadership is not standing still. The acquisition of data?platform Reltio has closed, and deals for Dremio and Prior Labs are pending, with completion of the Dremio purchase expected in the third quarter. To fund the acquisition spree, the company issued €3.5 billion in eurobonds across four tranches in late May, drawing ratings of A1 from Moody’s and A+ from S&P. A €10 billion share buyback programme running through the end of 2027 is also under way; the first tranche, worth about €2.6 billion, saw SAP repurchase 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16.
Analyst opinion remains sharply divided. Bernstein sees the stock at €276 and rates it a buy, while JPMorgan merely holds with a target nearly €100 lower. UBS’s Michael Briest, who also rates the stock a buy at a €205 target, points to the recent decline in oil prices following the US?Iran framework agreement as a modest tailwind for the business environment, though he expects margin improvement to be less dynamic than in the first quarter.
SAP will report second?quarter results on 23 July. Until then, a quiet period silences management commentary, leaving the share price to drift with macro sentiment. The key question for investors is whether cloud growth can hold its pace without the one?time effects — and whether the nascent AI?acquisition strategy will start to show tangible contributions. Should the €132.26 support level break, the technical picture could darken further.
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