SAP’s 52-Week Low: Celonis Lawsuit and Margin Fears Overshadow Potential EU Tailwind
26.06.2026 - 21:22:56 | boerse-global.de
The litigation calendar now marks December 7, 2026, as a key date for SAP shareholders. A federal judge in San Francisco has set that date for the antitrust trial brought by Celonis, which accuses the German software giant of deliberately restricting access to customer data to favour its own process-mining product, SAP Signavio. The suit adds another layer of uncertainty to a stock that has already lost nearly half its value since last July.
Shares touched a fresh 52-week low of €130.80 this week before rebounding 3.6% to €135.54, though a secondary report recorded a slightly higher trough of €131.72. The technical backdrop has shifted decisively: the stock has broken down from a multi-month sideways range, creating a new resistance zone at around €149, where trading volumes are heaviest. The relative strength index reads 40.7, still above oversold territory, but another assessment puts it at 35 -- and notes that the share price sits more than 28% below its 200-day moving average.
Cost pressures from the artificial-intelligence build-out and a cautious outlook from Accenture are compounding the bearish mood. Apple’s sharp hardware-price increases are seen as a leading indicator of ballooning infrastructure expenses for AI data centres, while Accenture’s forecast cut has sparked fears that AI automation will eat into billable hours for traditional software projects -- a risk that also hangs over IBM and Capgemini. SAP’s own margins have come under scrutiny: analysts have trimmed their expectations, citing both higher hardware costs and a struggling major customer in the Middle East. Jefferies slashed its price target to €210 from €230, though it kept a buy rating, arguing that the long-term case only brightens once macroeconomic uncertainty fades.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Not all the news is grim. The European Commission has provisionally designated Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services as “gatekeepers” under the Digital Markets Act. If confirmed, both would face stricter interoperability requirements within six months, potentially making it easier for SAP customers to migrate to S/4HANA. An ISG report adds that German enterprises are accelerating their SAP modernisation efforts, driven by AI automation and data-sovereignty concerns.
The real test comes on July 23, when SAP reports second-quarter earnings. In the first quarter, revenue rose to €9.56 billion and earnings per share reached €1.66; the full-year consensus stands at €7.21. The company is currently in its quiet period, which leaves the stock vulnerable to external assessments. Management will need to address the margin-pressure narrative head-on and convince the market that the automation wave is an opportunity for its cloud business, not a threat to its licensing model. With the Celonis trial still more than a year away and the stock technically oversold, the quarterly numbers could be the trigger that at last turns sentiment around -- or deepens the rout.
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