SAP's 52-Week Low Sparks Tentative Rebound as EU Probe Progress and AI Bet Counter Oracle Jitters
Published on 06/24/2026 at 04:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The SAP share has been cut nearly in half over the past twelve months, but a flicker of hope emerged this week as the stock clawed back from a fresh 52-week low of €130.82. Tuesday's recovery to €134.80 was modest, yet the session coincided with signs that the antitrust cloud hanging over the company may finally be lifting. The European Commission, which has been investigating SAP's maintenance service practices since September 2025, is now testing concrete concessions from the German software giant. Brussels is reportedly examining commitments that would give customers more flexibility in choosing service providers and scrap certain fees — a deal that could end the probe without a fine, sparing SAP a potential penalty of up to ten percent of annual turnover.
Yet the same day also served as a reminder that the macro headwinds battering the software sector are far from gone. A major trigger for the recent selloff was Oracle's announcement of capital expenditure plans reaching as much as $95 billion for AI infrastructure. The figure stoked fears across the industry that the cost of competing in artificial intelligence is spiralling, squeezing margins for every player. SAP's own AI ambitions are now being backed by a billion-euro acquisition strategy, with management targeting two companies: Prior Labs, which will function as a specialised research lab, and Dremio, a firm that connects internal and external data within cloud infrastructure. The combined cost of both deals exceeds €1 billion over four years, with closings scheduled for the third quarter of 2026.
Analysts remain strikingly bullish despite the share's 33 percent year-to-date slide. Berenberg rates SAP a "Buy" with a €215 target, arguing the market underestimates the company's transformation into an AI platform. UBS, with a €205 price objective, points to margin improvement in the second half. Bernstein goes further still, setting a target of €276 — more than double Monday's low. That gap between street estimates and the current price is now among the widest in the European software space, raising the question of whether the selloff has overshot.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Technically, the stock is not yet out of the danger zone. At €134.80, it trades roughly nine percent below its 50-day moving average of €148.22 and about 27 percent under the 200-day line. The relative strength index stands at 37.1, approaching oversold territory but still short of a clear reversal signal. Some market participants attribute the stabilisation to a rotation within the sector: hardware and chip names have come under heavy pressure, allowing select software stocks to catch a bid.
The next major catalyst arrives on July 23, when SAP releases second-quarter and first-half results. The cloud backlog, which stood at roughly €22 billion at the end of the first quarter, will be the headline metric. For now, the company is in its quiet period — management is barred from commenting on business trends until the earnings release. That leaves traders with little to trade on other than the acquisition narrative and the fading regulatory overhang, two forces that will need to overcome the Oracle-sized weight on the sector.
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