SAP’s Analyst Price Targets Span €100 as Oracle’s $95 Billion Capex Shock and EU Cartel Probe Weigh on Shares
Published on 06/21/2026 at 20:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The divide among analysts covering SAP has rarely been wider. Bernstein pencils in a €276 price target and a buy recommendation, while JPMorgan stops at €175 with a hold rating — a chasm of more than €100 that underscores the unusual uncertainty surrounding the software giant. Berenberg and UBS sit in the bullish camp with targets of €215 and €205 respectively, both citing a historically cheap valuation and margin expansion potential. Yet the stock itself tells a different story. SAP closed at €134.00 on Friday, just a whisker above a fresh 52-week low of €132.26 hit earlier in the week, and has shed roughly 34% since the start of the year.
The latest leg of the selloff was triggered by Oracle’s blockbuster announcement that it will plough up to $95 billion into cloud infrastructure. The move sent a chill through European software stocks, intensifying fears that the capital spending race in artificial intelligence will erode profitability across the sector. Goldman Sachs added to the gloom by trimming its margin forecasts for the second half of 2026, flagging rising hardware costs. Separately, the investment bank warned that interest rate cuts now look unlikely until at least 2027, pressuring the valuations of growth-oriented names like SAP. The stock currently trades nearly 28% below its 200-day moving average, a stark technical signal.
A buyback programme running until July has done little to arrest the slide. SAP has already completed a first tranche of €2.6 billion, repurchasing shares at an average price of around €161 — a level now €27 above the market. To help finance its strategic push, the company placed €3.5 billion in bonds in late May. Part of that capital will go toward the acquisition of data platform Dremio, a deal expected to close in the third quarter as SAP seeks to bolster its AI capabilities.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Investor jitters are compounded by a European Commission cartel probe examining whether SAP restricted competition in the aftermarket for enterprise resource planning maintenance. Signals of a possible out-of-court settlement have emerged, and a resolution would remove at least one overhang. Yet the cloud over the stock is thick. The company’s management has already warned of a weaker cloud growth trajectory in the second quarter after a strong start to the year, partly because one-off effects from the first quarter will not repeat. Adding to the headwinds, a large customer in the Middle East is scaling back its activities.
The next major test comes on July 23, when SAP reports second-quarter earnings. The market will focus on the cloud order backlog, which expanded 20% to €21.9 billion in the first quarter, and on the cloud gross margin. Expectations are tempered: the consensus is that the growth rate will decelerate. A relative strength index of 33.6 puts the stock on the cusp of oversold territory, but chartists warn that a break below the €132.26 support could open the door to further losses. For now, the bears have the upper hand — even as a handful of analysts insist the shares are priced for a recovery that may still be some quarters away.
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