SAP's Brussels Olive Branch: Will a Compromise on Antitrust Charges Be Enough to Reverse a 47% Slide?
29.06.2026 - 08:14:22 | boerse-global.de
SAP has dangled a carrot in front of European regulators just as its stock scrapes a 52-week low. The Walldorf-based software titan offered the European Commission a package of concessions aimed at ending a long-running antitrust probe, a move that could lift a multi-billion-euro legal cloud. Yet even this olive branch comes against a backdrop of brutal sector-wide selling that has knocked the shares down nearly 47% over the past twelve months. The stock closed last Friday at €136.16, still only a hair above the fresh trough of €130.80 hit a day earlier, though the session did cap a weekly gain of roughly 4%.
At the heart of the Brussels case is the allegation that SAP has been throttling competition in software maintenance. The company’s counteroffer centres on giving customers more freedom to choose service providers and introducing more flexible licensing terms. A green light from the Commission would mean the probe ends without a fine — and, crucially, without the financial blow that a penalty could deliver. A conviction would have exposed SAP to a fine of up to 10% of annual turnover. Based on 2024 revenues, that would have run into the billions of euros. With the proposal now under active review, investors are betting the regulator will take the deal.
The antitrust relief comes at a time when SAP’s own buyback machine is failing to arrest the slide. The company is mid-way through a €10 billion repurchase programme, the current tranche of which runs until July 2026. In the first round, SAP bought back shares at an average price of around €161. The stock now trades well below that level, making further purchases mathematically attractive but strategically ineffectual so far. The buyback has been unable to counteract the broader headwinds that have sent the shares into a tailspin since the start of the year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Those headwinds originate largely from across the Atlantic. Rival Oracle stunned the market last week with plans to spend as much as $95 billion on capital investments, stoking fears that the entire software sector is facing an explosion in AI infrastructure costs. Goldman Sachs responded by slashing its gross margin forecast for SAP in the second half of 2026. The bank nonetheless kept its buy rating, convinced the underlying AI strategy remains sound. Another worrying signal came from Accenture, which recently cut its revenue outlook. Because the consulting giant implements many SAP systems, analysts see its caution as a bellwether for enterprise spending on SAP’s products.
Operationally, SAP’s first-quarter numbers offered plenty of ammunition for the bulls. The cloud order backlog hit €21.9 billion, a 25% increase on a currency-adjusted basis. The company is targeting a cloud revenue of around €26 billion for the full year 2026, while operating profit is expected to climb to as much as €12.3 billion. Even against this solid backdrop, the market’s focus has shifted to margin pressure and the sustainability of cloud growth. The average analyst price target from nine brokers still stands at roughly €219, implying upside of more than 60% from current levels. Jefferies cut its target from €230 to €210 but kept its buy rating, while Bernstein Research sits at the top of the pack with a €276 target.
All eyes now turn to July 23, when SAP reports second-quarter earnings. The company has entered a quiet period during which management is barred from commenting. Investors will scrutinise the cloud backlog growth rate and the gross margin — both seen as litmus tests for the commercial success of SAP’s AI push. With a positive one-off effect from the previous quarter no longer in play, the bar is set high. If the numbers disappoint, even a €10 billion buyback and a Brussels settlement may not be enough to stem the selling.
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