SAP’s Buyback and EU Offer Blunt the Selloff, but Celonis Lawsuit Adds New Headwinds
28.06.2026 - 14:16:13 | boerse-global.de
The 3.9% jump in SAP’s stock on Friday was a rare bright spot in a brutal 12?month stretch that has wiped nearly half the company’s market value. Shares closed at €136.16, still some 49% below the 52?week high of €266.00 and a mere 4% above the year’s low of €130.80 touched on June 25. Yet the bounce was built on more than just relief – two structural developments are giving investors something to hold on to.
In Brussels, the European Commission has initiated a market test of concessions offered by SAP to settle an ongoing antitrust case. The company is accused of stifling competition in the maintenance of its enterprise?resource?planning software. To address the concerns, SAP has proposed giving customers greater freedom to choose third?party maintenance and support providers, relaxing licensing terms, and scrapping certain fees. If no objections are raised by customers or competitors, the Commission could close the probe without imposing a fine. Failure to settle, however, would expose SAP to a penalty of up to 10% of annual revenue – a risk of roughly €3.4?billion based on the €34.2?billion in sales booked in fiscal 2024. SAP insists its practices are fully compliant and expects no material financial impact.
Across the Atlantic, a separate legal battle is heating up. Process?mining firm Celonis has accused SAP of deliberately blocking access to customer data in order to favour its own Signavio product. A federal judge in San Francisco has set the trial to begin on December?7, 2026, and most of Celonis’s antitrust claims survived SAP’s motion to dismiss. SAP now faces the prospect of having to hand over internal documents on APIs, pricing, partner programmes, and RISE contracts. The company acknowledged that parts of the suit were thrown out but reiterated: “We remain steadfast in our position and will continue to vigorously defend ourselves.”
While the legal clouds gather, SAP’s massive share?buyback programme is providing a tangible floor. The company has already purchased around 16.3?million shares in the first tranche at an average price of €161.16 – an outlay of about €2.6?billion. The current tranche authorises up to €2.6?billion in additional repurchases through July?2026, a clear incentive given that the stock now trades well below that average. The overall programme runs to €10?billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Yet the pressure from the analyst community is mounting. Goldman Sachs trimmed its gross?margin forecast for the second half of 2026 to 72.8% from 73.3%, citing higher hardware costs and weakness at a major Middle Eastern customer. Jefferies’ Charles Brennan cut his price target on SAP to €210 from €230, pointing to a sluggish environment for European software firms. UBS’s Michael Briest holds at €205 with a buy rating, though he expects the pace of margin improvement to slow in the second quarter compared with the start of the year. All three houses maintain their buy recommendations.
The sector?wide anxiety has been fuelled by Oracle’s plan to spend up to $95?billion on AI infrastructure by fiscal 2027, stoking fears that SAP will have to match its rival’s capital intensity. Accenture’s recent revenue?guidance cut has added to the gloom, as it suggests corporate clients are delaying large IT projects.
Despite the headwinds, SAP’s core cloud business continues to deliver. In the first quarter of 2026, constant?currency cloud revenue climbed 27% to €5.96?billion, accelerating from the previous quarter. The cloud backlog rose 20% to €21.9?billion, and cloud?ERP?suite revenue advanced 23%. For the full year, management targets cloud sales between €25.8?billion and €26.2?billion. The company carries an investment?grade rating of A1 from Moody’s and A+ from S&P.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
All of this will be tested on July?23, when SAP releases its half?year results. With the quiet period that began on June?22 now in place, management is silent until then. The second?quarter report will show whether the margin concerns voiced by Goldman and Jefferies are justified – and whether the cloud momentum can keep the stock from revisiting its recent low.
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