SAP's Founder Exodus Adds to Pressure as Oracle's $95 Billion Cloud Splash Roils Sector
Published on 06/21/2026 at 18:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP investors are wrestling with two distinctly different forces: a share price that keeps sliding and a sudden void in the top ranks. The Walldorf-based software giant lost not one but two key figures this week when André Christ and Gero Decker, both founders of acquired companies, decided to leave. Their exits remove critical pillars of the cloud strategy just as the stock hovers near a two-and-a-half-year low.
Christ came via the €1.3 billion purchase of LeanIX; Decker joined through the roughly €1 billion Signavio acquisition. Together they oversaw much of the company’s shift toward cloud subscriptions. While tech acquisitions routinely lose founders after earn-out periods, the double departure raises fresh questions about how SAP will integrate future deals — and whether the remaining leadership can sustain momentum without that founder DNA.
The stock closed Friday at €134.00, almost touching the 52-week trough of €132.26 intraday. That marks a 33% skid since the start of the year and leaves the shares more than 49% below the record high set just over twelve months ago. The selloff has been relentless: the equity now trades nearly 28% beneath its 200-day moving average, a textbook sign of severe technical weakness.
What is fueling the rout is largely external. Oracle sent shockwaves through the industry by announcing capital expenditure plans of up to $95 billion, stoking fears that cloud providers like SAP will be forced into a ruinous cost spiral to keep up. Goldman Sachs responded by cutting its margin forecast for the second half of 2026, citing rising hardware expenses. Add to that a hawkish interest-rate outlook — Goldman sees no rate cuts until at least 2027 — which punishes the valuation of high-growth technology names.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Against this grim backdrop, analysts are deeply split. Bernstein sticks with a €276 price target and a buy rating, while JPMorgan is content with only a hold. In between, UBS reaffirmed a €205 target after what it described as constructive conversations with management, and Berenberg remains bullish at €215. The nearly €100 chasm between the most optimistic and the most cautious calls underscores the uncertainty.
The next major test comes on July 23, when SAP reports second-quarter earnings. The company has already warned investors to expect weaker cloud growth, partly because a large customer in the Middle East is scaling back and because non-recurring benefits from the first quarter will not repeat. Attention will also fall on the cloud gross margin and indications that new AI tools such as the Joule assistant are actually generating revenue, not just buzz.
SAP has been trying to offset the headwinds with strategic moves. It agreed to acquire data platform Dremio in a deal expected to close in the third quarter, a bid to bolster its AI capabilities. To finance that – and other initiatives – the group issued €3.5 billion in bonds at the end of May. Meanwhile, a hefty share buyback continues to provide a floor: the first €2.6 billion tranche was completed at an average price of around €161, a far cry from current levels. The full programme runs until 2027.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The market is now watching whether the €132.26 support level holds. If it breaks, technicians warn of further downside. The next catalyst is the July 23 report, which will either confirm the cloud deceleration fears or offer a reason to believe the selloff has been overdone. Until then, the leadership departures and the Oracle-induced cost jitters are likely to keep a lid on any recovery attempt.
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