SAP’s Fragile Rally Masks Deepening Legal and Margin Pressures Ahead of July 23 Earnings
28.06.2026 - 15:44:06 | boerse-global.de
SAP’s shares jumped nearly 4% on Friday, closing at €136.16, but the relief rally rests on thin ice. The software heavyweight is fighting on multiple legal fronts — an EU antitrust probe over maintenance contracts and a widening data-access lawsuit from Celonis — while analysts scale back margin expectations. The stock remains down roughly 33% year to date and sits just 4% above its 2026 low of €130.80, set just the previous Thursday.
The European Commission has been investigating SAP since September 2025 over alleged abuse of market power in maintenance services, a case that threatens a fine of up to 10% of annual revenue. According to media reports, SAP is now offering significant concessions: greater transparency on fees, easier access for third-party providers, and smoother switching to rival products. If Brussels accepts the deal, the company would avoid the financial penalty. SAP has said it expects no material financial impact from the proposed changes.
Across the Atlantic, the legal picture is more adversarial. Process-mining specialist Celonis accuses SAP of deliberately restricting access to customer data to favor its own Signavio product. A federal judge in San Francisco has scheduled the trial to start on December 7, 2026, after rejecting SAP’s motion to dismiss most of the claims. Celonis is now entitled to demand internal documents on APIs, pricing, partner programs, and RISE contracts. SAP acknowledged that parts of the lawsuit were thrown out, but stressed it “remains steadfast” and will “vigorously defend” itself.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Analysts are turning more cautious. Goldman Sachs trimmed its gross-margin estimate for the second half of 2026 from 73.3% to 72.8%, citing rising hardware costs and weakness at a major Middle Eastern client. Jefferies analyst Charles Brennan lowered his price target from €230 to €210 while keeping a buy rating, pointing to a sluggish environment for European software firms. UBS’s Michael Briest held his €205 target and buy call, but expects margin improvements in the second quarter to be less dynamic than earlier in the year. The broader sector mood was soured by Accenture’s recent revenue guidance cut, which signals corporate clients are deferring large IT projects.
Yet beneath the legal and margin noise, SAP’s core cloud business is firing. Cloud revenue grew 27% currency-adjusted in the first quarter to €5.96 billion, accelerating from the prior quarter, while the cloud order backlog expanded 20% to €21.9 billion. Management’s full-year cloud revenue target sits between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion. The company also continues to execute a €10 billion share buyback; by early April it had repurchased roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16, spending about €2.6 billion.
On the product front, SAP is rolling out 13 new AI assistants for human resources in June 2026 — dubbed Joule agents — designed to automate routine tasks and anchor the company’s monetization strategy. Still, the investment required to keep pace with rivals like Oracle, which plans to spend $95 billion on AI infrastructure by 2027, is weighing on margins. SAP’s stock now trades 49% below its 52-week high of €266.00 and 25.73% under its long-term moving average, a classic sign of a sustained downtrend.
All eyes are on July 23, when SAP releases second-quarter earnings after a quiet period that began on June 22. Management is barred from commenting until then. Investors will be looking for evidence that cloud order momentum can offset margin erosion and that the EU concessions can close the antitrust chapter. With the Celonis trial looming in December and analysts divided on the near-term outlook, the rally looks tentative — and the numbers will decide whether it has legs.
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