SAP’s Insider Buying Spree and €2.6 Billion Buyback Signal Faith in a Cloud-Powered Recovery
Published on 07/29/2026 at 14:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP’s stock has staged a remarkable comeback from its July lows, climbing more than 21% in just seven trading sessions to reach €158.34. The rebound, however, masks a more nuanced story: the German software giant is navigating a delicate balancing act between explosive cloud growth and the short-term margin pain from its aggressive AI acquisition strategy.
The catalyst for the rally came on July 24, when SAP reported second-quarter results that revealed a cloud business firing on all cylinders. The current cloud backlog — a key forward-looking metric — surged 26% on a currency-adjusted basis to €22.9 billion, handily beating analyst expectations. Cloud revenues climbed 24% to €6.3 billion, while IFRS earnings per share rose from €1.46 to €1.89 year-over-year. Yet the headline numbers were tempered by a guidance trim: SAP now expects currency-adjusted non-IFRS operating profit growth of 13% to 17%, down from the previous 14% to 18% range.
The culprit behind the downgrade is clear: the integration costs of two recently completed acquisitions. In early July, SAP closed its purchase of Dremio, a US-based data lakehouse platform, followed days later by the acquisition of Freiburg-based AI specialist Prior Labs. CFO Dominik Asam has flagged that Dremio alone will weigh on second-half operating results by more than €100 million, while SAP plans to invest over €1 billion in Prior Labs over the next four years. Both deals are designed to bolster SAP’s “Business AI” capabilities, but they come at a steep short-term cost to margins.
Management puts its money where its mouth is
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
What has captured the market’s attention, however, is the series of insider transactions that followed the earnings release. CEO Christian Klein purchased 2,440 SAP shares on July 24 at an average price of €133.60, a transaction valued at roughly €325,219. Just days later, CFO Dominik Asam followed suit with his own share purchases. These insider buys — coming hot on the heels of a guidance cut — are widely interpreted as a powerful vote of confidence in SAP’s long-term strategy.
The company then doubled down on that message. Starting this past Monday, SAP launched the second tranche of its ongoing share buyback program, authorizing the repurchase of up to €2.6 billion worth of its own shares, or a maximum of 18.5 million shares. The move signals that management believes the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects.
A divided analyst community
Wall Street’s reaction to SAP’s mixed signals has been anything but uniform. Jefferies analyst Charles Brennan reaffirmed his “Buy” rating with a €210 price target after meeting with Klein, citing SAP’s strategic position in the AI adoption cycle. Barclays maintained its “Overweight” stance but slashed its price target from €255 to €220, pointing to near-term cost uncertainties. Deutsche Bank Research kept its “Buy” recommendation and €200 target, praising the cloud momentum.
On the bearish side, DZ Bank cut its price target from €130 to €120 with a “Sell” rating, criticizing margin trajectory and the pace of AI execution. Berenberg trimmed its target from €215 to €205, while Evercore ISI lowered its target from €175 to €160 but held its “In-Line” rating. The consensus view: SAP’s growth story remains intact, but the transformation costs are increasingly testing investor patience on near-term margin expansion.
Commercial wins and strategic partnerships
Beyond the financial engineering, SAP has been busy on the commercial front. The company announced a strategic innovation partnership with insurer Signal Iduna focused on artificial intelligence. Separately, Airbus selected “RISE with SAP” and the “Sovereign Cloud” on July 24 to transform its core business processes — a significant win that underscores SAP’s relevance in enterprise cloud migrations.
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What lies ahead
Despite the sharp recovery, SAP’s stock still trades 9.75% below its 200-day moving average of €175.45, suggesting the medium-term rebound has room to run. The stock also remains 39% off its 52-week high, a reminder of how far it has fallen from peak valuations.
The next major test comes on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter results. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the cloud momentum can translate into sustainable earnings growth — or whether the integration costs of Dremio and Prior Labs will continue to cast a shadow over the bottom line. For now, management’s insider buying and the €2.6 billion buyback have bought the stock some breathing room, but the margin question remains the elephant in the room.
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