SAP’s July 23 Reckoning: EU Probe Resolution and Cloud Earnings Collide as Stock Trades Near Floor
Published on 06/25/2026 at 10:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP investors face two make-or-break developments on the same day this month. The software giant will release its second-quarter results after the market closes on July 23, while European antitrust authorities are expected to decide on a settlement that could wipe out a billion-euro risk. Shares, meanwhile, are nursing a 34% year-to-date decline and hovering just above their 52-week low.
The stock changed hands at 132.40 euros recently, having touched a fresh annual trough of 130.82 euros just days earlier. That represents a near-halving from the record high reached in July 2025. The company has entered its quiet period, meaning management cannot comment on business trends until the earnings call. The self-imposed gag order leaves traders without fresh guidance until late in the month.
Brussels Clouds Begin to Clear
An EU antitrust probe that has hung over SAP since autumn 2025 appears close to resolution. The Commission had accused the group of locking on-premise customers into its own maintenance and support ecosystem, potentially stifling competition. In the worst case, a fine of up to 10% of annual revenue — roughly 3.4 billion euros based on 2024 sales of 34.2 billion euros — had been on the table.
SAP has now offered customers greater freedom to choose third-party service providers and more flexibility in licensing. Brussels has market-tested the concessions, and unless significant client objections emerge, the procedure is expected to close without a penalty. The company itself has said it does not anticipate any material financial hit.
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Cloud Growth Slows After Strong Start
The first quarter showed solid momentum under the hood. SAP’s cloud backlog grew 20% to 21.9 billion euros, while currency-adjusted cloud revenue jumped 27%. Management, however, poured cold water on expectations for the second quarter, warning that specific one-off effects had inflated the Q1 figures. The June quarter is likely to deliver slower expansion.
On July 23, the market will scrutinise not just the headline cloud numbers but also the cloud gross margin — a key profitability metric that determines how much of that growth falls to the bottom line.
AI Spending Spree Amid the Silence
While the quiet period prevents comment, SAP has been making noise with its cheque book. Two acquisitions announced in May are nearing completion. The purchase of data lakehouse specialist Dremio is expected to close in the third quarter, and the takeover of AI lab Prior Labs should be sealed by autumn 2026. Over four years, SAP is pouring one billion euros into Prior Labs, which will remain independent and focus on developing specialised AI models. The aim is to smooth data integration between SAP and third-party systems. Regulatory approvals are still pending.
Buybacks Provide a Floor
Massive share repurchases are lending some support to the beaten-down stock. SAP is buying back its own equity for up to 2.6 billion euros in the open market until July 27, part of a larger multi-billion programme. The buyback helps offset selling pressure but has not been enough to reverse the slide.
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Analyst Stays Bullish Despite the Dismal Chart
UBS analyst Michael Briest continues to recommend buying the shares, maintaining a price target of 205 euros — implying more than 50% upside from current levels. He expects a slight improvement in margins for the just-completed quarter. Whether that forecast holds will become clear when SAP publishes its numbers at 22:05 Frankfurt time on July 23, followed by an analyst conference call.
The twin uncertainties of the EU probe and a potentially soft quarter have kept the stock anchored near the floor. If both the antitrust risk clears and the cloud metrics satisfy, a turnaround narrative could finally take hold.
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