SAP’s Stock Languishes Near a 52-Week Low While Analysts Tout 50% to 100% Upside
20.06.2026 - 11:35:05 | boerse-global.de
The gulf between what analysts say SAP is worth and what the market is willing to pay has rarely been wider. Shares of the German software giant closed at €134.00 on Tuesday, just above the 52-week trough, after shedding roughly 34% since the start of 2025 and 46% over the past twelve months. Yet at least two prominent houses see the stock rallying by half to more than double from current levels.
Berenberg, with a €215 price target and a “Buy” rating, implies upside of over 50%. Bernstein goes further, reaffirming a €276 target on June 17 — a bet the stock can more than double from its current floor. Bank of America chimed in with a Buy on June 11, while JPMorgan stood pat with a Hold the same day, leaving nearly €100 of divergence between analyst targets. For a Dax heavyweight, such a spread is unusual, and it underscores how divided the sell-side has become on the stock’s trajectory.
The market, however, is ignoring the bullish calls. The primary catalyst for the sell-off has been an external shock: Oracle’s announcement of capital expenditures between $90 billion and $95 billion for fiscal 2027, far exceeding expectations. Investors read that as a signal of rising costs across the enterprise-software sector, and SAP — despite its own strong operational performance — was caught in the downdraft. The strain was compounded by Goldman Sachs’ decision to cut its second-half 2026 gross margin estimate for SAP from 73.3% to 72.8% on higher hardware costs, triggering a 4.1% drop in the stock. Furthermore, the investment bank has removed all hopes of rate cuts from its 2026 forecast, pushing any easing to 2027 at the earliest — a headwind for high-multiple growth names.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Under the hood, SAP’s numbers tell a different story. First-quarter 2026 revenue reached €9.6 billion, with cloud sales surging 27% year-on-year. Operating profit came in at €2.9 billion, and the cloud backlog — a key forward indicator — hit €21.9 billion, up 20%. Management has guided for full-year cloud revenue of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion and free cash flow of around €10 billion. The company is also deepening its AI push: from June 2026 it will roll out 13 new Joule assistants for human resources, with plans to eventually deploy over 200 specialised AI agents across finance, procurement and supply chain. Yet the monetisation is still nascent — three assistants are free for the first year under RISE contracts, and full access requires expensive premium deals.
To fund its expansion, SAP raised €3.5 billion via a four-tranche euro bond at the end of May, the proceeds earmarked for refinancing acquisitions. The company completed its purchase of master-data-management specialist Reltio in May and is working to integrate Dremio to bolster its Business Data Cloud. These moves, combined with the cloud backlog strength, have done little to halt the stock’s slide.
Technically, the picture is equally stark. The 200-day moving average stands at €185.65, far above the current price. The relative strength index at 33.6 signals oversold conditions — but that alone has failed to draw buyers. The next major test comes on July 23, when SAP publishes its half-year results. Investors will be scrutinising the cloud backlog and gross margin to see if the AI strategy is beginning to convert into real revenue. One wild card: Goldman Sachs cautioned that a client in the Middle East plans to scale back activity, which could weigh on second-quarter cloud growth. Offsetting that, positive pipeline signals from the Sapphire conference offer a glimmer of hope.
For now, the market is betting against the analysts. Whether the July 23 report can flip that narrative hinges on whether SAP can finally put hard numbers behind its AI monetisation story — something it has so far failed to do.
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