SAP’s Tentative Rally: EU Concessions and a Multi-Billion Buyback Stem the Sell-Off
Published on 06/27/2026 at 19:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
After shedding roughly 46% of its value over the past twelve months — with some estimates putting the decline at nearly 47% — SAP’s stock finally caught a bid on Friday. The shares closed at €136.16, up 3.92%, offering a brief respite from the relentless selling pressure that had pushed the stock to a 52-week low of €130.80 just a day earlier. The bounce draws on two concrete supports: a potential settlement with European antitrust authorities and the steady drip of the company’s own share repurchase program.
The European Commission has been investigating SAP since September 2025 over allegations that the software giant abuses its market power in maintenance and support services, effectively locking customers into its ecosystem and making it costly to switch to rivals. SAP has now offered a package of concessions aimed at defusing the case. The remedies include broader interoperability commitments and greater transparency around fees, particularly the re?entry charges that customers face when they reinstate support contracts. If the Commission accepts the proposals, the probe would end without a fine — a penalty that could have reached up to 10% of SAP’s annual revenue. The regulator has already launched a feedback procedure with interested parties. SAP itself says it expects no material impact on its financials from the proceedings. A separate complaint from Munich?based process?mining firm Celonis, filed with Germany’s Federal Cartel Office and accusing SAP of unfairly favoring its own Signavio solution, continues to run alongside the EU case.
The buyback program provides a second, more mechanical floor under the stock. In its first tranche, SAP repurchased roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16 per share — well above the current trading level. The current tranche authorizes buybacks of up to €2.6 billion until July 2026, and the entire program, which runs through the end of 2027, has a total budget of up to €10 billion. With shares trading below that average repurchase price, the program exerts a structural pull on the downside.
Technically, the rebound remains fragile. SAP still sits nearly 8% below its 50?day moving average of €147.48 and a full 26% under the 200?day moving average of €183.34. The relative strength index (RSI) at 41.4 hovers in neutral territory, not yet oversold enough to trigger a compelling buy signal. The critical support level to watch is €130.80; a break below that would likely invite fresh selling, while a sustained hold could allow a base to form.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The broader environment offers mixed cues. Germany’s consulting market is projected to grow by more than 8% in 2026, fueled by artificial?intelligence transformation projects and geopolitical uncertainty that forces companies to outsource project work. Regulatory changes are also providing tailwinds for SAP’s core ERP business: new documentation requirements for electric?vehicle charging infrastructure and revisions to income?tax law are boosting demand for compliance?related modules. Yet uncertainty persists on the regulatory front, as the discussion around a potential EU?U.S. digital council could alter how European digital laws are enforced — an unknown that complicates planning for large software firms.
The sentiment that drove the stock lower remains potent. Oracle rocked the sector with plans to invest up to $95 billion in capital expenditure for its fiscal 2027, stoking fears that AI infrastructure costs will spiral across the industry. Goldman Sachs responded by trimming its forecast for SAP’s second?half 2026 gross margin slightly, citing higher hardware costs — a move that knocked the stock down 4% in a single day, even though the bank left its buy rating unchanged. Investors currently favour companies perceived as direct AI beneficiaries, and SAP, despite its solid fundamentals, hasn’t made that cut in the market’s eyes.
Analysts, however, see substantial upside from here. The average price target from nine sell?side firms stands at €221.25, roughly 60% above Friday’s close. Bernstein Research is the most bullish at €276, while Berenberg targets €215, UBS €205, and Deutsche Bank €200. Berenberg notes that first?quarter earnings improved markedly even as market sentiment remains far from pre?crisis levels. Indeed, SAP delivered solid results for the first quarter of 2026: the current cloud backlog rose 20% to €21.9 billion, and cloud revenue grew 27% on a currency?adjusted basis. For the full year, the company expects cloud sales of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion and free cash flow of around €10 billion.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next pivotal moment arrives on 23 July 2026, when SAP releases its second?quarter numbers. One important nuance: a non?recurring effect that flattered first?quarter cloud growth will fall away in the second quarter, so the market will be watching the cloud backlog and cloud gross margin closely for evidence that the AI strategy is gaining commercial traction. With the stock down 32.59% year?to?date, the July report could either validate the tentative rally or send shares back towards the lows.
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