SAP's Worst Month in Years Triggers 'Wall of Worry' Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Numbers
Veröffentlicht: 30.06.2026 um 11:33 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The selloff in SAP shares has been brutal. Over the past 30 days alone, the software titan has shed nearly 20% of its value, trading at €134.88 — a far cry from the €210-plus levels analysts still believe are achievable. The slide has brought the stock perilously close to its 52-week low of €130.80, hit on June 25. Yet beneath the surface pessimism, a contrarian case is building.
Jefferies analyst Charles Brennan describes the current positioning as a classic "wall of worry" — a one-sided bearish consensus that historically paves the way for a recovery. He trimmed his price target modestly to €210 but retained his buy rating, arguing that even solid quarterly numbers could be enough to reverse the trend. The broader European software sector is suffering from the same mood, but Brennan sees the lopsided bets as a contrarian signal.
The catalysts for the rout are largely external, not company-specific. Oracle's latest quarterly report sent shockwaves through the industry: the US rival plans capital expenditure of up to $95 billion for fiscal 2027, stoking fears that the cost of AI infrastructure will crush margins across the sector. SAP lost about 4% in a single session, briefly becoming the worst performer in the DAX. An Accenture revenue warning shortly after compounded the damage. The result, as one observer put it, is "collateral damage, not self-inflicted."
Add to that the interest rate headwind. Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has hinted at further tightening, not cuts, and Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate reduction only in 2027. For growth stocks like SAP, higher discount rates mechanically compress valuations — a structural drag that no amount of operational improvement can fully offset.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Yet the operational picture tells a very different story. First-quarter results, released on April 23, showed cloud revenue climbing 27% to nearly €6 billion, while the cloud backlog hit a record €21.9 billion, up 25%. Earnings per share rose to €1.66 from €1.52 a year earlier. Meanwhile, SAP's €10 billion buyback programme is running at full throttle: since January 2026, the company has repurchased around 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16, for a total of roughly €2.6 billion. That buyback is providing a floor, even as the stock trades well below the average repurchase price.
Analysts remain broadly constructive. UBS's Michael Briest expects margins to improve in the second quarter and keeps a €205 target. Berenberg's Nay Soe Naing calls the current valuation historically low for the sector and sets a target of €215. Goldman Sachs trimmed its gross margin forecast for the second half of 2026 but left its buy recommendation unchanged.
On the product front, SAP rolled out Joule Studio 2.0 in June, allowing clients to build custom AI agents that not only display data but execute tasks autonomously. The move marks a decisive shift toward an AI-centric platform. Separately, reports suggest that SAP is nearing a settlement with the European Commission in its antitrust case, potentially avoiding a hefty fine by making concessions on maintenance contracts. Resolving that overhang would remove a material financial risk.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the stock remains under pressure. It trades about 26% below its 200-day moving average — a clear downtrend — and the relative strength index of 40.1, while not yet in oversold territory, confirms persistent weakness.
With the quiet period now in effect, management is barred from issuing any guidance until the July 23 release of second-quarter figures. The market will zero in on two metrics: the cloud backlog and the cloud gross margin. Both will reveal whether SAP's AI strategy is gaining commercial traction — or whether escalating costs are eating into the progress. After that, August brings the EU's AI Act, which imposes stricter rules on high-risk applications. Compliance delays could slow product rollouts just as AI features become the company's key selling point. For now, the stage is set for an inflection point — or another leg down.
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