SAP Sidesteps EU Fine but Faces Renewed Scrutiny Over AI Payoff Ahead of Earnings
Published on 07/10/2026 at 16:46 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The past week has been a study in contrasts for SAP. The German software giant secured a hard-fought legal victory in Brussels, closing a years-long antitrust probe without a penny in fines. Yet that relief was quickly tempered by a tremor from across the Atlantic, where a key analyst’s downgrade of Salesforce reignited doubts about whether the industry’s massive bets on artificial intelligence are translating into real revenue. As the market digests this mix of regulatory closure and strategic uncertainty, SAP’s stock has barely budged.
Shares of SAP changed hands at €139.52 on Friday, a gain of 0.78% on the session. That leaves the equity just 6.67% above its 52-week low of €130.80, hit on June 25, 2026. Year-to-date, the stock has shed 30.93% of its value, and over the past twelve months the decline is steeper still — from a July 2025 peak of €265.75, the current price represents a slide of roughly 47.6%. The 50-day moving average of €145.74 sits 4.27% above the current quote, while the 200-day average of €178.71 is a distant 21.9% higher. The relative strength index at 47.3 points to neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but the annualized monthly volatility of 38.61% underscores a nervous trading environment.
A Truce Without a Fine
On Thursday, the European Commission formally accepted SAP’s binding commitments, bringing the antitrust proceedings to a close. The case had focused on concerns that SAP’s maintenance and support policies for on-premise ERP systems unfairly locked customers into its ecosystem. To end the investigation, SAP agreed to several concessions: customers will now find it easier to split their SAP landscapes and choose different maintenance providers; licensing termination terms have been relaxed for scenarios such as headcount reductions or divestitures. The agreement removes the threat of potential multibillion-euro fines, a development analysts see as a positive for operational planning.
The Shadow of Salesforce
That legal clarity, however, arrived against a backdrop of fresh skepticism about the software sector’s AI narrative. On Wednesday, KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader downgraded Salesforce from "Overweight" to "Sector Weight" and abandoned his price target entirely. His reasoning: after attending numerous partner and customer events, he saw little evidence that Salesforce’s AI platform Agentforce is ready to accelerate growth. Customer data remains too messy for meaningful AI work, and the product itself is still immature. Worse, Ader’s surveys show more clients planning to cut their Salesforce budgets over the next twelve months than to increase them.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The episode has direct implications for SAP. Investors are increasingly questioning whether billions spent on AI infrastructure across the software industry will translate into near-term revenue. Some even worry that AI agents could cannibalize existing licensing models. That same anxiety has hung over SAP for months, and the stock has suffered more than Salesforce on a relative basis this year.
Austerity Meets Ambition
SAP’s leadership is not waiting for the market to make up its mind. Since July 1, the company has reorganized its management structure to accelerate its "Autonomous Enterprise" push. Philipp Herzig now heads the Business AI Platform, which consolidates the technological AI foundation for the entire portfolio. Manoj Swaminathan leads the Autonomous Suite, covering AI applications in finance, supply chain, and human resources.
To free up capital for these investments, SAP has imposed a stringent hiring freeze on all positions unrelated to AI. Travel and external consulting budgets have also been slashed. The goal is to funnel resources into AI infrastructure while stabilizing the operating margin — a delicate balancing act in a period of revenue deceleration.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The July 23 Litmus Test
All eyes now turn to July 23, 2026, when SAP reports its second-quarter results. Analysts forecast revenue of approximately €9.85 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and earnings per share of €1.76, a 20% increase. The cloud backlog will be the most closely watched metric, as it serves as the primary gauge for the uptake of the company’s new AI subscription models.
J.P. Morgan rates SAP "Neutral," while Jefferies maintains a "Buy" recommendation, betting on strong cloud momentum. The broader question, however, is whether SAP can offer tangible evidence that its AI investments are monetizing. If it fails to do so, the skepticism currently weighing on Salesforce could migrate directly to SAP’s stock. If it succeeds, the battered shares may finally find a floor.
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