Scottish Mortgage Stays Grounded as SpaceX IPO Looms, Curbing Market Hype
15.05.2026 - 01:07:03 | boerse-global.de
The prospect of a SpaceX stock market debut has stirred up a frenzy of billion-dollar speculation, but Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust is making a deliberate point of ignoring the noise. While media reports have pinned a valuation of between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion on Elon Musk’s rocket company ahead of a potential June IPO, the British trust sticks to a far more conservative internal estimate of $1.25 trillion. That leaves a gap of at least half a trillion dollars — a chasm the trust’s independent valuation advisers refuse to bridge without verifiable transactions.
That $1.25 trillion figure, based on a recent revaluation that also folded in the AI venture xAI, was calculated using only confirmed secondary market deals. Baillie Gifford’s in-house team and S&P Global, the external appraiser, have systematically excluded press speculation. The result is a deliberate underwriting of SpaceX compared with the euphoric chatter surrounding its public listing.
A bet that has multiplied nearly 20 times
Scottish Mortgage first bought into SpaceX in December 2018, with a final top-up in August 2021, sinking a total of £151 million into the business. That stake is now worth around £2.98 billion as of 31 March 2026 — a 19.7-fold return that makes it by far the trust’s largest single holding at 19.3 per cent of the portfolio. The sheer weight of that position has forced structural changes: unlisted investments now account for 41.6 per cent of assets, well above the 30 per cent ceiling that shareholders had to temporarily raise in April.
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An IPO would automatically shrink that unlisted exposure by converting SpaceX into a daily-priced security, but it would also introduce new volatility into the trust’s net asset value. Scottish Mortgage has warned that a lock-up period of roughly six months — typical for such listings — would initially prevent any selling or position trimming. The precise terms remain unknown until the S-1 prospectus lands, expected in May or June.
Trust shares attract their own demand
Investor enthusiasm for the trust itself has not waned. On 13 May, Scottish Mortgage issued 1 million new shares from its treasury at 1,429.00 pence each, a premium to net asset value. Two days earlier it had placed 600,000 shares at 1,428.50 pence. The trust’s own stock trades at around 16.91 euros, up roughly 22 per cent since the start of the year and within striking distance of its 52-week high of 17.15 euros.
All eyes are now on the S-1 filing, which will provide audited financials and the final offering conditions. Until then, Scottish Mortgage is content to let the market talk — while quietly banking on a far more conservative number.
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