Short Sellers Flee Voestalpine as Dividend Hike Bolsters a Stock Caught Between Trade Winds
Published on 07/13/2026 at 14:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Hardly any investor on the US-traded side of Voestalpine is betting against the Austrian steelmaker these days. The number of shares held short collapsed by 80.4 percent to a mere 786 by the end of June — a vote of confidence that stands in sharp contrast to the crosscurrents still gripping the sector. That abandonment of bearish bets provides a fresh backdrop for a stock that has been wrestling with two clashing forces: newly toughened European import protection and a punishing 50 percent US tariff on steel.
The company reinforced that bullish shift with a dividend increase, announced after the annual general meeting. Shareholders will collect €0.75 per share from July 14, a 25 percent jump from last year’s €0.60. The payout comes on top of a solid balance sheet: free cash flow reached €537 million in the past fiscal year, net financial debt dropped 23.4 percent to €1.30 billion, and equity stood at €7.80 billion. The gearing ratio of 16.2 percent — the lowest since 2005/06 — gives management plenty of breathing room as it navigates an uncertain trade landscape.
Voestalpine’s share price reflected the mixed sentiment at the close of last week, landing at €43.46. That is 1.27 percent down over seven days and 6.50 percent lower over the past month, yet still 12.42 percent ahead since the start of the year. The 52-week range tells the recovery story best: the stock has climbed 85.09 percent from the August 2025 trough of €23.48, though it remains 11.70 percent below the February high of €49.22.
The central tension for the company — and for shareholders — is whether the EBIDTA target of €1.60 to €1.85 billion for the current financial year 2026/27 is achievable. Management delivered €1.5 billion in the prior period, with EBIT rising 59 percent to €724 million and net profit surging 137.6 percent to €424 million. The upper end of the forecast would require the new EU steel safeguard regime, which took effect July 1, to stabilise prices and order volumes in the Steel Division. The first hard evidence will come in August with the quarterly report for the opening quarter of the year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Voestalpine?
On the other side of the ledger, the US tariffs have already inflicted a high double-digit million-euro hit on earnings. Voestalpine’s Tubulars unit in Kindberg has been forced to cut production, while the Automotive Components division continues to feel the weight of sluggish European car demand. Long-term growth bets are still paying off: the company secured record orders in rail systems (€500 million from Deutsche Bahn and SBB), aerospace (roughly €1 billion, mostly from Airbus), and industrial storage technology. The greentec steel conversion is also on schedule, with about 60 percent of the €1.5 billion investment already spent — though the core electric arc furnace components will not arrive until autumn.
Technically, the stock is treading water near a key level. The 200-day moving average sits at €40.26, and the current price is about 7.96 percent above it — a cushion that suggests the underlying uptrend remains intact. The 50-day average at €44.91 lies just above the share price, and the relative strength index of 49.6 points to a neutral market. With annualised 30-day volatility at 42.59 percent, the stock remains prone to sharp swings.
Analysts on US trading venues offer a split verdict. UBS recently downgraded to Neutral, Citi likewise sits on the sidelines, while Deutsche Bank sticks with Buy. The consensus still reads as a “Moderate Buy,” supported by a quarterly earnings beat — earnings per share of $0.23 versus an expected $0.21, and revenue of $4.59 billion against forecasts of $4.19 billion.
Voestalpine at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Meanwhile, Brussels is reshaping the playing field. Stricter import rules and a carbon border adjustment mechanism are now in force, and the planned Industrial Accelerator Act could generate an additional nine million tonnes of demand for CO?-lean steel from 2029, according to Boston Consulting Group. The European Commission is also set to unveil a reform of the emissions trading system on July 17, which may include €6 billion of free carbon certificates for industry. Swiss criticism, however, has been sharp: Economy Minister Guy Parmelin warned that raising steel tariffs from 25 to 50 percent could prove an “own goal” by imposing extra costs of up to 900 million francs through a cross-border worker rule. For Voestalpine, the interplay of these policy moves with the concrete results of the August quarterly report will determine whether the current share price holds — or whether the short sellers were right to flee.
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Voestalpine Stock: New Analysis - 13 July
Fresh Voestalpine information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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