Siemens Energy's Grid Triumph Collides with a 40 GW Offshore Wind Warning
12.06.2026 - 07:06:28 | boerse-global.de
Siemens Energy has presented a portrait of a company running at two different speeds: its grid and gas divisions are surging on AI-driven demand, while the offshore wind business stares into a yawning order gap. The contrast is stark, but for now the market is backing the boom. The stock has clawed back to around €151, recovering nearly 9% from its April peak of €195.54, and remains up close to 23% year-to-date.
The group's 2026 outlook, upgraded on broad front, underscores the shift. Comparable revenue growth is now seen at 14% to 16%, up from the previous 11% to 13% target. Net profit is expected to land at roughly €4 billion, while pre-tax free cash flow is forecast to reach approximately €8 billion—nearly double earlier projections. The star performer is Grid Technologies, which now aims for revenue expansion of 25% to 27% in fiscal 2026 and an adjusted margin of 18% to 20%. Market watchers note that the division is on track to hit its original 2028 targets two years early.
But the rosy headline numbers obscure a pressing vulnerability. Vinod Philip, head of the wind division formerly known as Siemens Gamesa, warned on Thursday that Europe faces a shortfall of 40 GW in installed offshore capacity by 2030. Without a fresh wave of large-scale contracts, production lines could face cuts after 2028, triggering a cutthroat shakeout across the supply chain. The division is still targeting breakeven in fiscal 2026, and management insists the goal remains intact—but the warning signals that the path to profitability is narrowing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?
The conventional business tells a different story. The insatiable appetite of AI data centres is turbocharging demand for gas turbines. Hyperscalers now account for a quarter of the turbine segment's order backlog, and the US market, which represents 40% of global demand, is pushing factories to their absolute limits. CEO Christian Bruch calls the current environment a "super-cycle", and Siemens Energy is planning to expand manufacturing capacity through 2030. Geopolitical tensions are adding further tailwinds as governments prioritise energy security.
The company is not only riding the cycle—it is also returning capital. A share buyback programme of up to €6 billion will run until the end of fiscal 2028, and the first week of June alone saw the repurchase of 237,040 shares. The total group order backlog stands at €154 billion, providing multi-year visibility.
Technically, the stock sits above its 200-day moving average of €136.35, with the relative strength index near 40—suggesting there is room for further recovery before reaching overbought territory. Berenberg maintains a €225 price target, while the consensus analyst estimate sits around €195. Yet annualised volatility above 53% reminds investors that this is not a steady-state story. The real test lies not in the order intake, but in the ability to convert that €154 billion pipeline into high-margin output. If the next quarterly report shows tangible progress at Gamesa, the twin narratives of grid boom and wind gloom could begin to converge.
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