Siemens Energy’s Wind Overhang Grows as Buyback Ends and Activist Calls for Spin-Off

Siemens Energy finds itself in an awkward spot. The group boasts a near-unrivalled order book, a raised profit forecast, and has just finished returning €3.6 billion to shareholders over the past year. Yet its shares have slid almost 7% in a week, undone by a familiar culprit: the wind-turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa.

That tension came into sharper focus on Friday, when the stock closed at €163.24, down 2.15% on the day and 6.03% lower over seven sessions. The 13.17% retreat from the 52-week high set on 24 April has taken the equity below its 50-day moving average of €167.35, a technical red flag that momentum traders are watching. The RSI of 53.1 suggests the consolidation is neither overbought nor oversold—but the short-term direction remains uncertain as a key support disappears.

Buyback wrapped, cash returned

Siemens Energy completed its share repurchase programme between 4 March and 19 May, scooping up 12.6 million shares, or 1.465% of its capital, at an average price of €158.50 apiece. Thanks to stronger-than-expected cash flow, the company raised the programme’s volume from €2 billion to €3 billion. Add in the March dividend, and total distributions to shareholders for the current fiscal year hit €3.6 billion. That support is now gone, leaving the stock exposed to profit-taking after a 92.47% rally over twelve months and a year-to-date gain of 32.93%.

Operationally, the group has rarely looked stronger. CFO Maria Ferraro put order coverage at roughly 93% for the second half of fiscal 2026 and nearly 80% for 2027—visibility few industrial peers can match. The guidance for the current year calls for comparable revenue growth of 14% to 16%, an earnings margin before special items of 10% to 12%, and net profit of around €4 billion. Free cash flow before taxes is now expected at about €8 billion, fuelled by customer prepayments in Gas Services and Grid Technologies.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?

Gamesa remains the bottleneck

The entire annual forecast hinges on a single condition: that Siemens Gamesa reaches operational breakeven in this fiscal year. Management has explicitly framed the target as a prerequisite, not merely an internal goal. Progress is visible—the wind unit’s loss before special items narrowed to €44 million in the second quarter from €249 million a year earlier, improving the loss margin to minus 1.7%. But the first half is still expected to be in the red, placing the weight of the breakeven target on a robust offshore recovery in the second half. That dependence is the root of market jitters.

Activist hedge fund Ananym is applying additional pressure. Co-founder Charlie Penner confirmed to Reuters that his fund has demanded Siemens Energy conduct a strategic review of Gamesa, including a possible spin-off. In a letter to the group, Ananym argued that a sale or separation could lift the share price by 40%. Whether management will pursue that route is unclear, but the threat keeps the argument for a split alive as long as Gamesa bleeds cash.

Grid boom brightens the picture

The brightest spot remains Grid Technologies, the division that supplies equipment for power transmission. Surging demand from data centres and artificial-intelligence infrastructure is driving a revenue growth forecast of 25% to 27% at margins of 18% to 20%. JPMorgan reiterated its “Overweight” rating and €225 price target on 28 May, pointing to the division’s operational substance as the core reason for optimism.

Siemens Energy at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

For now, the market is in wait-and-see mode. The next catalyst arrives on 5 August, when Siemens Energy publishes its third-quarter results. Between now and then, every scrap of news about the offshore ramp-up at Gamesa will move the stock, and the chart support around €160 will be the key line to hold. After the buyback ends and activist calls grow louder, the second half of the year is shaping up to be a proving ground for both the wind business and management’s credibility.

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