Silver’s $68.91 Balancing Act: A Fed Hawk, an Iran Accord, and a Structural Supply Squeeze
Published on 06/18/2026 at 13:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The week in precious metals delivered a sharp tug-of-war between monetary policy and geopolitics, with silver closing Thursday at $68.91 per ounce, up 1.5% on the day. That modest gain belies a dramatic intraweek swing, driven first by a hawkish debut from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and then by a surprise preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
For traders, the whipsaw action underscored just how many competing forces are now coursing through the silver market. The metal lost roughly 3% midweek after the Fed’s updated projections dashed hopes of imminent rate cuts. The dot plot raised the median terminal rate for the end of 2026 to 3.8%, up from the 3.4% penciled in during the March round of forecasts. Half of the Federal Open Market Committee members now anticipate at least one rate increase before year-end 2026.
The inflation outlook provided the rationale. The Fed’s 2026 headline consumer price forecast was lifted to 3.6%, with the core reading at 3.3% — both markedly higher than the 2.7% predicted in March. The persistent upward pressure from energy costs, tied to tensions in the Middle East, was cited as a key driver. Futures markets repriced swiftly: two-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.21%, and the dollar recorded its strongest single-day rally in nearly a year. Against that backdrop, non-yielding silver became an expensive hold, prompting a sharp selloff.
The decline was arrested almost as quickly as it began. President Donald Trump signed a preliminary accord with Iran that reopens the Strait of Hormuz to oil traffic and lifts sanctions on Iranian crude exports. The immediate removal of a geopolitical risk premium allowed silver to snap back above the $69 threshold. While full implementation remains uncertain, the announcement alone was sufficient to reverse the metal’s losses.
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A new source of structural demand
Beyond the weekly volatility, a longer-term transformation is reshaping the demand side of silver’s ledger. Data centers and artificial-intelligence infrastructure have emerged as significant industrial consumers. Each major facility requires tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of ounces of silver in switchgear, connectors, and thermal management systems. According to the Silver Institute, Metals Focus, and other research bodies, demand from data centers alone could reach 20 to 40 million ounces in 2026, and under an aggressive AI buildout scenario, that figure might climb to 40 to 80 million ounces annually by 2030.
This industrial pull compounds a pre-existing supply deficit. The World Silver Survey 2025 indicates the market is in its fifth consecutive year of shortfall, with mine production barely growing because most silver is a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining. With over half of global consumption coming from industrial uses, and much of that material consumed rather than recycled, the supply-demand balance remains structurally tight.
The gold-to-silver ratio currently sits near 62, not far from the 50-year average of 65 to 70. In prior precious-metal bull runs, the ratio has compressed to between 40 and 50 as silver took the lead. Whether this cycle follows that pattern will depend on whether inflation pressures force the Fed to deliver further rate hikes or whether structural trends in AI and renewable energy outpace the supply constraints first.
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Technical brush with the 200-day moving average
On the charts, the selling wave that followed Warsh’s press conference tested a pivotal support level with near-surgical precision. Silver brushed the 200-day moving average at $68.72 before bouncing. A decisive break below that line would open the door to further downside, with the next solid support zone waiting around $66.53. For now, the geopolitical ceasefire and the industrial demand narrative have provided enough ballast to keep the metal afloat above $68.90 — but the tug-of-war between macro headwinds and micro tailwinds is far from resolved.
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