Silver’s $75.83 Tightrope: Sub-100M Ounce Inventories and Iran Deal Disruption Test the Bulls

Silver begins the trading week caught between two powerful forces that rarely align so neatly in opposition. COMEX warehouse stocks have slipped below 100 million ounces for the first time in recent memory, a scarcity milestone that normally would light a fire under prices. Yet the metal is stuck near $75.83 after Friday’s 0.50% decline, stymied by a weekend diplomatic breakdown over Iran that kept the Strait of Hormuz in play — and by stubborn inflation data that bolsters the case for higher-for-longer interest rates.

The proposed 60-day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran collapsed at the final hour when President Donald Trump demanded revisions to the text, particularly over language on Tehran’s nuclear material and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The original plan envisioned a mine-clearing operation within 30 days followed by free, untolled shipping through the strategic chokepoint. For silver, the impact cuts both ways. A deal would have eased energy prices and lowered a key component of inflation, reducing the metal’s geopolitical premium. The delay keeps that uncertainty alive, but the market’s muted reaction — spot silver oscillated in a $75–76 band on Friday — suggests traders are pricing in neither a full-blown crisis nor a swift resolution.

Macroeconomic headwinds are adding their own weight. The April PCE price index climbed 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually. Higher inflation can burnish silver’s appeal as a store of value, but it also firms up expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated — a direct drag on non-yielding assets. The second estimate of first-quarter GDP came in at 1.6%, below the initial 2.0% forecast, tempering hopes for a robust industrial recovery that would lift silver’s demand as a manufacturing input.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?

Supply-side tightness remains the key counterweight. COMEX inventories dipping below 100 million ounces means there is far less buffer in a market already running structural deficits. The demand mix is shifting too: weaker offtake from the solar sector is being partially offset by new consumption in battery technologies and artificial intelligence applications. Silver’s dual identity as both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity leaves it especially vulnerable to whipsaws — the same geopolitical tension that props up safe-haven flows can hurt the industrial outlook.

Technically, the metal is hovering just below its 50-day moving average of $76.09, a gap of only 0.35%. The relative strength index at 58.9 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Resistance emerges near the 78-dollar handle, with a sustained move above that level potentially opening a path to the 100-day average at $81.73. On the downside, the May low of $73.09 serves as the first line of defense. The annualized 30-day volatility of 55.53% underscores how quickly silver can lurch between macro anxiety and scarcity-fueled rallies.

The coming days will bring fresh catalysts. The ISM manufacturing index on June 1 and the services PMI on June 3 will offer clues on economic momentum. For now, all eyes are on the $75 area: holding above it keeps the sideways consolidation intact, while a breakdown would invite a test of the May trough — pitting the bullish narrative of dwindling inventories against the gravitational pull of higher rates.

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